Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX · Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis

Executive Summary

Housing Market Area Description

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is situated in the north-central region of the state of Texas. It encompasses a vast area of 9,286 square miles and includes the counties of Collin, Ellis, Johnson, Rockwall, Tarrant, Dallas, Denton, Hunt, Kaufman, Parker, and Wise. The metropolitan area is strategically located near the Trinity River, which contributes to its diverse landscape of prairies, tree-lined creeks, and gentle hills. The area is well-connected, with significant transportation infrastructure facilitating commute patterns within the region and to adjacent metropolitan areas.

The economy of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is robust and diverse, driven by key sectors such as defense, aviation, and tourism. The presence of major corporations and industries has established the area as a significant economic hub. Notable landmarks and institutions, including several universities and military installations, contribute to the economic vitality of the region. The tourism sector is bolstered by attractions such as the Arlington Entertainment District, which draws visitors from across the nation.

As of January 1, 2026, the population of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is 8,477,157. The area is known for its humid subtropical climate, characterized by hot summers and mild winters with brief cold spells. A distinctive historical fact about the region is that Dallas was once a cattle town known as "Cowtown," reflecting its rich heritage in the cattle industry. This historical context continues to influence the cultural and economic landscape of the metropolitan area today.

Tools and Resources

• Find interim updates for this metropolitan area, and select geographies nationally, at PD&R's Market-at-a-Glance tool.
• Additional data for the HMA can be found in this report's supplemental tables and the *.audit.json sidecar file written beside this markdown.
• For information on HUD-supported activity in this area, see the Community Assessment Reporting Tool.

Market Qualifiers

Economy

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced an increase in nonfarm payrolls during the 12 months ending February 2026, with the addition of approximately 44,783 jobs, representing a growth rate of 1.0 percent. This expansion in employment reflects a positive trend in the local economy, contributing to the overall economic vitality of the region. The unemployment rate in the metropolitan area was 3.9 percent as of February 2026, slightly up from 3.9 percent a year earlier. Despite this slight increase, the unemployment rate remains below the neutral benchmark of 4 to 5 percent, indicating a slightly tight labor market.

The increase in nonfarm payrolls suggests a robust demand for labor across various sectors in the metropolitan area. The service-providing sectors, which typically constitute a significant portion of employment, likely played a crucial role in this job growth. The slight rise in the unemployment rate may be attributed to an expanding labor force as more individuals enter the job market, encouraged by the availability of job opportunities. This dynamic is indicative of a healthy labor market where job creation is keeping pace with labor force growth.

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area continues to benefit from its diverse economic base, which includes strong sectors such as technology, finance, and healthcare. These industries have been instrumental in driving employment growth and sustaining economic resilience. The metropolitan area's strategic location and business-friendly environment further enhance its attractiveness to employers and job seekers alike. As a result, the region remains a key economic hub in the state of Texas.

During the 3-year forecast period, payrolls in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area are expected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent. This anticipated growth reflects ongoing economic expansion and the continued attraction of businesses and residents to the area. The labor market is likely to remain slightly tight, with employment opportunities continuing to draw individuals to the region, supporting sustained economic development.

Home Sales Market

The sales housing market in the metropolitan area is currently balanced. The average sales price for new homes is $490,253, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.8 percent. In contrast, the average sales price for existing homes is $414,656, which is down from the previous year by 2.7 percent. The mortgage interest rate context is not specified, but it is an important factor influencing the market dynamics. During the forecast period, demand is expected for approximately 205,312 new sales units, indicating a sustained interest in housing within the metropolitan area.

Total home sales in the metropolitan area reached approximately 73,502 units, representing a decrease of 5.7 percent from the previous year. This decline in sales activity is consistent with the balanced market conditions, where supply and demand are relatively aligned. The months of inventory currently stand at 5.9 months, further supporting the balanced market classification. The number of homes under construction is 34,429, which suggests ongoing development activity to meet future demand.

The decline in existing home prices may be attributed to various factors, including changes in buyer preferences or shifts in the local economy. Despite the decrease in existing home prices, the increase in new home prices indicates a divergence in market segments. This trend may reflect a preference for newer housing stock or differences in location and amenities offered by new versus existing homes.

The balanced market conditions suggest that neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage in the current environment. The alignment of supply and demand is crucial for maintaining stability in the housing market. As the metropolitan area continues to grow, the demand for new sales units will likely remain robust, driven by factors such as population growth and economic development.

Overall, the sales housing market in the metropolitan area is characterized by balanced conditions, with stable price levels for new homes and a slight decline in existing home prices. The forecast for new sales units indicates a continued need for housing to accommodate future growth. The ongoing construction activity is a positive sign for the market, as it helps to address the demand for new housing options.

Rental Market

The apartment rental market in the metropolitan area is currently experiencing slightly soft conditions. The vacancy rate stands at 8.98 percent, up from 8.56 percent a year earlier, indicating a modest increase in available rental units. The average rent is $1,417, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 2.07 percent. This decrease in rent suggests a shift in market dynamics, potentially influenced by an increase in supply or changes in demand patterns.

The demand for rental units is currently at 96,618, which underscores the ongoing need for rental housing in the area. However, with 21,401 units under construction, the market may face further softening if demand does not keep pace with the new supply. The additional rental construction during the forecast period could exacerbate the current imbalance, leading to higher vacancy rates and further downward pressure on rents. It is crucial for developers and policymakers to monitor these trends closely to ensure that the rental market remains stable and does not become oversaturated.

3-Year Housing Demand Forecast

Total demand represents the estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. The forecast period is from the as-of date to 3 years forward.

Notable Conditions and Recent Developments

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area has experienced significant population growth, with the current population reaching 8,477,157 as of February 2026, up from 7,638,294. This increase reflects a robust demand for housing, driven by both natural population growth and net in-migration. The metropolitan area continues to attract new residents due to its strong economic base, diverse employment opportunities, and relatively affordable cost of living compared to other major metropolitan areas. The sustained population growth is expected to support continued demand for both owner-occupied and rental housing during the forecast period.

Sales conditions in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area are currently balanced, indicating a healthy equilibrium between supply and demand in the housing market. In contrast, rental conditions are slightly soft, suggesting a higher availability of rental units relative to demand. This divergence may be attributed to the recent increase in multifamily construction, which has outpaced the growth in renter households. For potential homebuyers, the balanced sales market offers a stable environment with moderate price appreciation, while renters may benefit from more competitive rental rates and concessions as landlords seek to fill vacancies.

The housing market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area faces several policy and supply-side challenges that impact new construction. Rising construction costs, driven by increased material prices and labor shortages, have put upward pressure on home prices and rents. Additionally, property taxes in Texas, which are among the highest in the nation, can affect housing affordability and influence decisions on new developments. Insurance costs, particularly for properties susceptible to severe weather events, also contribute to the overall cost of housing. These factors collectively shape the types and locations of housing that are economically viable to build in the metropolitan area.

Distinctive features of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area include its role as a major transportation and logistics hub, which supports a diverse economy and attracts businesses and residents alike. The area's central location in the state of Texas and its extensive transportation infrastructure, including major highways and airports, enhance its appeal as a strategic business location. Additionally, the metropolitan area hosts a vibrant cultural scene and numerous educational institutions, further contributing to its attractiveness as a place to live and work. These characteristics distinguish the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area from other peer metropolitan areas, reinforcing its position as a dynamic and growing region.

Economic Conditions

Primary Local Economic Factors

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is characterized by a diverse and robust economy, with significant contributions from several key sectors. The Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector is the largest, employing approximately 891,664 individuals. This is followed by the Professional & Business Services sector, which employs about 780,236 people, highlighting the area's strong business environment. The Education & Health Services sector also plays a crucial role, with 524,845 jobs, reflecting the region's emphasis on education and healthcare. Major employers such as AT&T and CBRE Group underscore the importance of the Professional & Business Services sector, while American Airlines Group and Southwest Airlines highlight the significance of the Transportation & Utilities sector. Brinker International is a notable employer in the Leisure & Hospitality sector, which employs 432,109 individuals, indicating the area's appeal as a leisure destination.

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area spans 9,286 square miles and is home to over 7.6 million residents. Known for its strong economy driven by defense, aviation, and tourism, the area benefits from a humid subtropical climate with hot summers. Historically, Dallas was once a cattle town known as "Cowtown," reflecting its roots in agriculture and livestock. The region's economic landscape is further enriched by its cultural and historical attractions, which draw numerous visitors each year. The presence of major airlines and a thriving business sector contributes to the area's reputation as a hub for commerce and travel.

Demographic trends and industry dynamics present both opportunities and challenges for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. The area's growing population supports demand in the Education & Health Services sector, as more residents require educational and healthcare services. Additionally, the presence of major corporations and a strong business environment attract professionals, contributing to the growth of the Professional & Business Services sector. However, the region must also navigate challenges such as maintaining infrastructure and managing urban sprawl as the population continues to expand. The forecast period is expected to see continued growth in these sectors, driven by both domestic and international migration, as well as ongoing investments in the region's economic infrastructure.

Table 1. Major Employers in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA

Estimates via Zoomprop research (Tavily live search of local economic-development and state workforce sources). Excludes local school districts.

Current Conditions — Nonfarm Payrolls

During the 12 months ending February 2026, nonfarm payrolls in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area increased to 4,316,400 jobs, up from 4,271,600 jobs during the previous 12 months. This represents an increase of 44,783 jobs, or 1.0 percent. The growth in nonfarm payrolls decelerated compared with the previous 12-month period, reflecting a moderation in the pace of economic expansion in the metropolitan area.

The service-providing sectors experienced notable gains, with the Education and Health Services sector adding 9,929 jobs, or 1.9 percent. This growth may be attributed to ongoing expansions in healthcare facilities and educational institutions in the region. The Financial Activities sector also saw significant growth, with an increase of 7,960 jobs, or 2.1 percent, likely driven by the continued expansion of financial services firms in the metropolitan area. Additionally, the Professional and Business Services sector added 7,511 jobs, representing a 1.0 percent increase, as demand for professional services continued to rise.

In the goods-producing sectors, the Manufacturing sector experienced a modest increase, adding 714 jobs, or 0.2 percent. This growth may be attributed to a steady demand for manufactured goods despite potential challenges in the broader manufacturing industry. Data for the Mining and Logging and Construction sectors were not available, precluding a detailed analysis of these sectors. However, the overall stability in manufacturing suggests that any declines in construction activity may have been offset by gains in other areas of manufacturing.

The Information sector experienced a decline, losing 595 jobs, or 0.7 percent, during the 12 months ending February 2026. This decrease may be indicative of broader challenges within the information technology industry, including potential shifts in consumer demand and technological advancements that have altered the employment landscape. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector also experienced a slight decline, losing 370 jobs, or 0.04 percent, which may reflect adjustments in retail trade and transportation logistics in response to changing market conditions.

Table 2. 12-Month Change in Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA, by Sector

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES). Rows where CES is suppressed at this MSA are reconstructed from QCEW county-level annual data.

Annual nonfarm payrolls — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA, 10-year trend (annual average, thousands)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES).

Sector Deep Dive — Trade, Transportation & Utilities

The Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area currently supports approximately 891,664 jobs. This sector is a significant component of the local economy, contributing a substantial share to the total nonfarm employment. During the 12 months ending October 2023, the sector experienced a slight decline, with a reduction of 370 jobs, or 0.04 percent. This marginal decrease indicates a relatively stable employment environment within the sector, despite minor fluctuations.

The dataset does not provide specific employer names within the Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area. However, this sector typically includes a range of businesses involved in wholesale and retail trade, transportation services, and utility provision. The absence of detailed employer information limits the ability to highlight key players in the region.

Several qualitative factors influence the dynamics of the Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector in the metropolitan area. The region's strategic location as a transportation hub, with extensive road, rail, and air networks, supports robust trade and logistics activities. Additionally, the area's growing population drives demand for retail trade and utility services. The sector's performance is also shaped by broader economic conditions, including consumer spending patterns and supply chain developments.

Looking ahead, the Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector is expected to maintain a steady trajectory over the next three years. Continued population growth and economic expansion in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area are likely to support demand for trade and transportation services. However, potential challenges such as shifts in consumer behavior and technological advancements in logistics may influence the sector's evolution during the forecast period.

Current Conditions — Unemployment

The 12-month average unemployment rate in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area was 3.9 percent, up from 3.89 percent during the previous year. This slight increase indicates a labor market that remains slightly tight. The current unemployment rate suggests that the region continues to experience a relatively healthy economic environment, with employment opportunities generally available for job seekers. Despite the marginal rise in unemployment, the labor market conditions in the metropolitan area remain favorable compared to historical standards.

In comparison, the unemployment rate in the state of Texas was 4.2 percent, while the national rate stood at 4.3 percent. The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area maintains a lower unemployment rate than both the state and the nation, highlighting its stronger labor market conditions. This disparity suggests that the metropolitan area is benefiting from economic factors that are not as prevalent in other parts of the state or the nation. The region's diverse economy and robust job growth in key sectors may contribute to its relatively lower unemployment rate.

Over the past several years, the unemployment rate in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area has shown significant fluctuations. The rate peaked at 7.17 percent in 2020, reflecting the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the unemployment rate has steadily declined, reaching a low of 3.32 percent in 2019 before the pandemic. The recent trend indicates a gradual stabilization of the labor market, with the current rate closely aligning with pre-pandemic levels. This trend underscores the resilience of the metropolitan area's economy and its ability to recover from economic shocks.

Annual average unemployment rate — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS).

Commuting Patterns and Labor Force Dynamics

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is characterized by its extensive transportation infrastructure, which includes major interstate highways such as I-35, I-20, and I-30, facilitating efficient commuting within the region and to adjacent metropolitan areas. The area's central location in the state of Texas and its proximity to other major cities like Austin and Houston contribute to a dynamic commute-shed. The presence of Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, one of the busiest airports in the nation, further enhances connectivity and supports the region's role as a significant economic hub. These transportation networks are crucial for the daily movement of the labor force, impacting commuting patterns and residential choices.

Labor force participation in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is influenced by several demographic factors. The region's population includes a mix of young professionals, families, and an increasing number of retirees, reflecting broader national trends of an aging population. The unemployment rate in the area is currently 3.9 percent, indicating a relatively strong labor market. The presence of diverse industries, including technology, finance, and healthcare, attracts a wide range of workers. Seasonal workforce fluctuations are less pronounced in this metropolitan area compared to regions heavily reliant on tourism, allowing for more stable labor force participation throughout the year.

The shift toward remote and hybrid work arrangements during the pandemic has had a significant impact on commuting patterns in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area. As more companies adopt flexible work policies, the demand for office space has been affected, with some businesses downsizing or reconfiguring their office footprints. This trend has also influenced residential location choices, as workers seek homes that accommodate remote work needs, often prioritizing space and amenities over proximity to traditional office locations. The long-term effects of these changes are still unfolding, but they are likely to continue shaping the region's labor market dynamics and real estate trends during the forecast period.

Wages and Income

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is characterized by a diverse economic base that includes significant contributions from both the service-providing sectors and professional and financial services. The presence of major corporate headquarters and a robust technology sector suggests that the metropolitan area likely experiences higher average wages compared to regions dominated by leisure, retail, or healthcare sectors. The professional and financial services sectors typically offer higher wages, which can elevate the overall income levels in the area. This economic composition positions the metropolitan area as a hub of higher-wage employment opportunities, contributing to its attractiveness for skilled workers.

Despite the potential for higher nominal wages, the rising cost of living in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area presents challenges for maintaining real income growth, particularly for middle-quintile renters. Factors such as increasing home prices, property taxes, and insurance costs, especially in areas prone to natural disasters, exert pressure on household budgets. As these costs rise, the purchasing power of nominal wage increases may be eroded, leading to tighter real incomes. This dynamic is particularly pronounced for renters, who may not benefit from the equity gains associated with homeownership and are more directly impacted by fluctuations in rental prices.

The implications of these economic conditions extend to housing affordability for existing residents. As the cost of living continues to rise, the ability of households to afford housing without financial strain becomes a critical concern. The balance between wage growth and living expenses will play a significant role in determining the accessibility of housing for residents in the metropolitan area. Ensuring that wage increases keep pace with the cost of living is essential for maintaining housing affordability and supporting the overall economic well-being of the community.

Economic Periods of Significance

2011 Through 2019

During the period from 2011 to 2019, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced a significant economic expansion, characterized by robust job growth and diversification across various sectors. The nonfarm payrolls in the metropolitan area increased steadily, reaching 3,767,383 jobs by 2019. This growth represents an increase of 280,459 jobs from 2011, marking a substantial expansion in the local economy. The average annual job growth during this period was approximately 31,162 jobs, reflecting the area's strong economic performance and attractiveness to businesses and workers alike.

The service-providing sectors were the primary drivers of job growth during this expansion period. These sectors, which include professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality, contributed significantly to the overall employment gains. The professional and business services sector, in particular, benefited from the metropolitan area's position as a major business hub, attracting numerous corporate relocations and expansions. This sector's growth was supported by the area's skilled workforce and favorable business climate, which encouraged companies to establish and expand their operations in the region.

Education and health services also played a crucial role in the employment expansion, driven by the increasing demand for healthcare services and educational institutions in the rapidly growing metropolitan area. The population growth in the region, fueled by net in-migration and natural increase, necessitated the expansion of healthcare facilities and educational institutions, thereby creating numerous job opportunities. The leisure and hospitality sector, bolstered by the area's vibrant cultural and entertainment offerings, also contributed to the job growth, as the metropolitan area became an increasingly popular destination for both tourists and new residents.

The construction sector experienced notable growth during this period, supported by the strong demand for residential and commercial properties. The expansion of the housing market, driven by population growth and economic prosperity, led to increased construction activity, further boosting employment in the sector. Additionally, infrastructure development projects, including transportation and public works, contributed to the growth in construction jobs, enhancing the metropolitan area's connectivity and attractiveness to businesses and residents.

Overall, the period from 2011 to 2019 marked a time of significant economic expansion for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area. The diverse and dynamic economy, supported by strong job growth across multiple sectors, positioned the region as a leading economic powerhouse in the state of Texas and the nation. This expansion laid a solid foundation for continued growth and development in the years leading up to the pandemic, highlighting the resilience and adaptability of the metropolitan area's economy.

2020

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced a significant contraction in nonfarm payrolls during the 2020 pandemic. Nonfarm payrolls decreased to 3,647,683 jobs in 2020, down from 3,767,383 jobs in 2019, marking a decline of 119,700 jobs or 3.2 percent. This contraction was a direct result of the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to widespread job losses across various sectors. The decline in employment was particularly pronounced in the service-providing sectors, which were heavily impacted by the pandemic-related restrictions and changes in consumer behavior.

The leisure and hospitality sector was the hardest hit during this period, as travel restrictions and social distancing measures led to a sharp decline in tourism and dining activities. This sector, which is highly dependent on consumer spending and face-to-face interactions, saw significant job losses as businesses were forced to close or operate at reduced capacity. Similarly, the wholesale and retail trade sectors experienced a downturn due to decreased consumer spending and disruptions in supply chains. These sectors faced challenges in adapting to the sudden shift in consumer preferences and the increased reliance on online shopping.

In contrast, the transportation and utilities sector in the metropolitan area benefited from the surge in e-commerce during the pandemic. As consumers increasingly turned to online shopping, there was a heightened demand for logistics and delivery services, which bolstered employment in this sector. The shift towards e-commerce provided a cushion for the transportation and utilities sector, mitigating some of the overall employment losses in the metropolitan area. This sectoral reallocation highlights the uneven impact of the pandemic across different industries within the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area.

Despite the challenges faced in 2020, the metropolitan area demonstrated resilience and began to recover in the subsequent years. By 2021, nonfarm payrolls had rebounded to 3,820,300 jobs, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. This recovery was driven by the gradual reopening of the economy, the rollout of vaccines, and the adaptation of businesses to the new normal. The recovery trajectory continued in the following years, with nonfarm payrolls reaching 4,068,458 jobs in 2022 and further increasing to 4,200,633 jobs in 2023. The sustained growth in employment reflects the metropolitan area's robust economic fundamentals and its ability to adapt to changing economic conditions.

The forecast period is expected to see continued growth in nonfarm payrolls, with projections indicating an increase to 4,262,500 jobs in 2024 and 4,309,392 jobs in 2025. This anticipated growth is supported by the ongoing recovery in the service-providing sectors and the continued expansion of the transportation and utilities sector. The metropolitan area's diverse economic base and strong population growth are likely to contribute to its resilience and ability to weather future economic challenges. As the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area continues to recover from the pandemic-induced contraction, it is poised to maintain its position as a key economic hub in the state of Texas.

2021 Through 2023

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced a significant recovery in nonfarm payrolls from 2021 to 2023. In 2021, nonfarm payrolls increased to 3,820,300 jobs, up from 3,647,700 jobs in 2020, marking a recovery from the pandemic-induced decline. This upward trend continued with nonfarm payrolls reaching 4,068,500 jobs in 2022 and further increasing to 4,200,600 jobs in 2023. The average annual gain in nonfarm payrolls during this period was approximately 189,700 jobs, reflecting a robust recovery in the metropolitan area.

The recovery was led by the service-providing sectors, which saw substantial growth as businesses reopened and consumer demand increased. The professional and business services sector, in particular, played a pivotal role in the recovery, benefiting from the expansion of technology and financial services firms in the area. Additionally, the leisure and hospitality sector rebounded strongly as travel and tourism activities resumed, contributing significantly to job gains. The education and health services sector also experienced growth, driven by increased demand for healthcare services and educational institutions adapting to new operational models.

Manufacturing and construction sectors in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area also contributed to the recovery, albeit to a lesser extent than the service-providing sectors. The manufacturing sector benefited from increased production activities and supply chain adjustments, while the construction sector saw growth due to ongoing residential and commercial development projects. These sectors helped support the overall economic recovery by providing employment opportunities and stimulating local economic activity.

The recovery in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area was further supported by net in-migration, as the region continued to attract new residents seeking employment opportunities and a favorable living environment. The combination of job growth, sectoral expansion, and population increase contributed to the strengthening of the local economy during the recovery period. As the metropolitan area continues to grow, the focus remains on sustaining economic momentum and addressing challenges such as housing affordability and infrastructure development.

Forecast

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is expected to experience an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent in nonfarm payrolls over the next three years. This growth is anticipated to be led by the service-providing sectors, which have historically been a significant driver of employment in the region. The professional and business services sector, in particular, is likely to contribute substantially to job creation, supported by the area's strong business climate and diverse economy. Additionally, the education and health services sector is expected to expand, driven by ongoing population growth and the increasing demand for healthcare services. The construction sector may also see gains as infrastructure projects and residential developments continue to progress.

Despite the positive outlook, several factors could pose challenges to the economic forecast for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. Elevated interest rates may dampen consumer spending and business investment, potentially slowing economic growth. Additionally, the region could face headwinds from demographic aging, which may impact labor force participation rates and the availability of skilled workers. In-migration moderation could also affect the pace of economic expansion, as the area has historically relied on net in-migration to support its labor market and housing demand. These factors, combined with potential fluctuations in property-insurance costs, particularly in hurricane-prone areas, could influence the overall economic trajectory during the forecast period.

Population and Households

Population Trends

The population of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced significant growth from 2010 to 2020. During this period, the population increased from 6,367,000 in 2010 to 7,667,416 in 2020, reflecting an average annual increase of approximately 130,042 people, or 1.9 percent. This growth was driven by a combination of factors, including net in-migration and natural increase. The metropolitan area has been a popular destination for both domestic and international migrants, attracted by its robust economy, diverse job opportunities, and relatively affordable cost of living compared to other major metropolitan areas.

Following 2020, the population growth in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area accelerated. From 2020 to 2025, the population increased from 7,667,416 to 8,477,157, representing an average annual addition of 161,948 people, or 2.1 percent. This acceleration in growth can be attributed to continued strong net in-migration, as the area remains an attractive location for individuals and families seeking employment opportunities and a high quality of life. The recent annual additions have been substantial, with the population increasing by 182,948 people, or 2.3 percent, from 2024 to 2025 alone.

As of 2025, the population of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is estimated at 8,477,157. Looking ahead, the population is projected to reach 9,001,642 by 2028. This trend extrapolation suggests an average annual increase of 174,828 people, or 2.1 percent, during the forecast period. The sustained growth is expected to be supported by ongoing economic expansion and continued net in-migration, as the metropolitan area remains a key economic hub in the state of Texas and the nation.

The drivers of population growth in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area include a strong labor market, which attracts job seekers from across the country, and a favorable business climate that encourages corporate relocations and expansions. Additionally, the area has seen an influx of remote workers and retirees, drawn by the region's amenities, cultural offerings, and relatively mild climate. These factors are likely to continue to support population growth in the coming years.

Table 3. Population and Household Quick Facts — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA

Forecast values extend the most recent vintage of Census Population Estimates and ACS over a 3-year horizon.

Components of Population Change

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area has experienced significant population growth in recent years, driven primarily by two factors: natural increase and net migration. In many sunbelt metropolitan areas, including Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, the aging population often results in a net natural decline, where the number of deaths exceeds births. Consequently, the majority of population growth in these areas is attributed to net in-migration. From 2020 to 2025, the population of the metropolitan area increased from 7,667,416 to 8,477,157, reflecting a substantial rise in the number of residents.

The age composition of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area suggests that net migration plays a more significant role in population growth compared to natural increase. The area is known for attracting younger individuals and families seeking employment opportunities, contributing to a dynamic and growing labor force. This influx of younger residents helps offset the natural decline associated with an aging population. As a result, the metropolitan area continues to experience robust population growth, with net in-migration being a key driver.

The implications of this population growth for household formation and housing demand are considerable. As the population increases, so does the demand for housing, leading to a need for additional residential construction and development. The influx of younger individuals and families is likely to result in increased demand for single-family homes and rental properties. This trend is expected to continue during the forecast period, as the metropolitan area remains an attractive destination for new residents. The sustained population growth will likely support a strong housing market, with ongoing demand for both new and existing homes.

Migration Trends

Net in-migration has been the primary driver of population growth in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area. This trend is consistent with other growing sunbelt metropolitan areas, where favorable economic conditions and a relatively lower cost of living attract new residents. The majority of the recent population growth in the area can be attributed to net in-migration, as individuals and families continue to relocate to the region in search of better opportunities and quality of life. The metropolitan area has become a popular destination for those seeking employment in its diverse and expanding economy, which includes significant contributions from sectors such as technology, finance, and healthcare.

While specific migration flows are not detailed, it is likely that the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area draws new residents from nearby metropolitan areas as well as major coastal cities. The proximity to other Texas cities such as Austin and Houston may contribute to the influx of residents, as individuals move within the state for employment or lifestyle reasons. Additionally, major coastal metropolitan areas, including those in California and the Northeast, are likely sources of in-migration, as residents from these regions seek more affordable housing and a lower cost of living. The area's appeal is further enhanced by its strong job market and vibrant cultural scene, making it an attractive option for both young professionals and retirees.

Price-disparity-driven migration plays a significant role in the movement of people to the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. As housing costs in major coastal cities continue to rise, many individuals and families are relocating to more affordable regions. The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area offers a comparatively lower cost of living, which is a significant draw for those looking to maximize their purchasing power. This trend of moving from higher-cost to lower-cost metropolitan areas is expected to continue, contributing to sustained population growth in the region during the forecast period. The area's ability to offer a high quality of life at a lower cost makes it a compelling choice for those seeking to relocate.

Household Trends

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced significant household growth, with the number of households increasing to 3,475,634, up from 3,131,701. This represents an absolute change of 343,933 households, or a 11.0 percent increase. This growth rate indicates that household formation in the metropolitan area is robust and may be outpacing population growth, suggesting a trend of increasing household sizes or a shift in demographic patterns. The increase in households could be attributed to factors such as net in-migration and economic opportunities that attract new residents to the area.

The homeownership rate in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is currently 68 percent. This rate is indicative of a stable housing market with a significant proportion of mature families and possibly retirees who prefer homeownership over renting. Compared to 2020, the current homeownership rate suggests a continuation or slight increase in ownership trends, reflecting economic stability and confidence in the housing market. A higher homeownership rate can also imply a demand for single-family homes and a potential increase in housing development to accommodate the growing number of homeowners.

Looking ahead, the trend extrapolation suggests continued growth in the number of households in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area over the next three years. Although specific forecast values are not provided, the current trajectory indicates that household formation will likely remain strong, supported by ongoing economic development and population inflows. This sustained growth in households will have implications for housing demand, infrastructure development, and urban planning, as the metropolitan area continues to expand and evolve. The forecast period will be critical in determining how these trends will shape the future housing landscape of the region.

Household Composition

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area currently has 3,475,634 households. The homeownership rate in the area is 68 percent, indicating a predominance of owner-occupied units over renter-occupied ones. This high rate of homeownership suggests a significant presence of family households, as families are more likely to own their homes compared to non-family households. The composition of households in the metropolitan area is likely characterized by a mix of family and non-family households, with family households forming the majority due to the higher tendency for homeownership among families.

The aging population in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area has implications for household-size trends. As the population ages, there is a tendency towards smaller household sizes. Older adults often transition from larger family homes to smaller living arrangements, such as downsizing to smaller single-family homes or moving into apartments. This demographic shift contributes to a decrease in the average household size, as older adults typically live in smaller households compared to younger families. The trend towards smaller household sizes is expected to continue as the population ages, influencing the overall household composition in the area.

The shift towards smaller household sizes translates into a demand for different unit sizes in the housing market. There is an increasing demand for two-bedroom owner-occupied single-family homes and townhomes, which cater to smaller households, including empty nesters and retirees. Conversely, there is a decreasing demand for larger homes with four or more bedrooms, which are typically sought by larger family households. This change in demand reflects the evolving needs of the population, as smaller households seek more manageable living spaces that align with their lifestyle and financial considerations. The housing market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is likely to see a continued preference for smaller, more efficient housing units during the forecast period.

Forecast

The population of the metropolitan area is currently estimated at 8,477,157. By the year 2028, the population is forecast to increase to 9,001,642. This represents an increase of 524,485 people, or approximately 6.2 percent, over the forecast period. The anticipated growth reflects ongoing trends in the metropolitan area, which has experienced consistent population increases in recent years.

The projected population growth is expected to be driven by a combination of factors, including net in-migration and natural increase. The metropolitan area has historically attracted new residents due to its diverse economic opportunities and quality of life. The continued expansion of key industries and infrastructure improvements are likely to support this trend, contributing to the overall population increase.

While the forecast does not include specific household projections, the increase in population suggests a corresponding rise in the number of households. This growth is expected to impact the housing market, with potential increases in demand for both rental and owner-occupied housing. The metropolitan area may need to address housing supply to accommodate the anticipated population growth.

The forecast period will likely see changes in demographic patterns, with potential shifts in age distribution and household composition. These changes could influence housing preferences and demand for different types of housing units. Policymakers and developers may need to consider these factors when planning for future housing needs in the metropolitan area.

Overall, the population forecast for the metropolitan area indicates continued growth and development. The projected increase in population underscores the importance of strategic planning to ensure that infrastructure, housing, and services can meet the needs of a growing population. As the metropolitan area evolves, it will be important to monitor demographic trends and adjust plans accordingly to support sustainable growth.

Home Sales Market

Current Conditions

The home sales market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is currently balanced, with a months of inventory figure of 5.9 months as of February 2026. This level of inventory indicates a market where supply and demand are relatively even, neither favoring buyers nor sellers. The total number of home sales in the area was approximately 73,502 during the 12 months ending February 2026, representing a decrease of 5.7 percent from the previous year. The decline in sales activity suggests a cooling in the market, potentially influenced by broader economic conditions.

Total home sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area have decreased from the previous year, with 73,502 homes sold compared to a higher number in the prior period. This decline of 5.7 percent may be attributed to several factors, including elevated mortgage rates and increased insurance costs, particularly in regions susceptible to natural disasters such as hurricanes. These factors can contribute to a more cautious approach by potential homebuyers, impacting overall sales volume.

The current mortgage rate context is not explicitly provided, but it is likely that rates remain elevated compared to recent historical lows. Higher mortgage rates can affect affordability, making it more challenging for potential buyers to enter the market or upgrade their existing homes. This situation can lead to a reduction in demand, as buyers may delay purchasing decisions in anticipation of more favorable financing conditions in the future.

The overall average price of homes in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area has shown mixed trends. The average price of new homes increased by 1.8 percent to approximately $490,253, while the average price of existing homes decreased by 2.7 percent to about $414,656. These price movements reflect varying dynamics in the new and existing home segments, with new homes experiencing modest price growth and existing homes seeing a slight decline in value.

Table 5. Home Sales Quick Facts — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA

Resale Home Sales

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced a notable increase in resale home sales from 2013 through 2017. In 2013, there were 79,562 existing home sales, which rose to 92,703 by 2017. This growth period reflects a recovery from the Great Recession, with sales increasing each year. The upward trend continued into 2018, although sales declined to 64,993, marking a shift in the market dynamics. Despite this decline, the overall trajectory from 2013 to 2017 was one of growth, driven by economic recovery and increasing demand for housing in the metropolitan area.

The years 2020 and 2021 marked a significant boom in the resale home market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area. In 2020, existing home sales reached 73,971, and this figure surged to 88,797 in 2021. This period of growth coincided with historically low mortgage interest rates, which spurred increased homebuying activity. The peak year of 2021 represented the highest level of resale home sales in the decade, as buyers took advantage of favorable financing conditions and sought to capitalize on the opportunity to purchase homes in a competitive market.

Following the peak in 2021, the resale home market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced a slowdown. In 2022, existing home sales declined to 70,411, a decrease of 20.7 percent from the previous year. The trend continued into 2023, with sales further decreasing to 48,550, down 31.1 percent from 2022. The decline in sales during this period can be attributed to rising mortgage interest rates, which have dampened buyer enthusiasm and affordability. The most recent data for 2024 indicates a slight decrease to 47,879, reflecting a continued trend of reduced sales activity in the face of ongoing economic challenges.

New Home Sales

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced fluctuations in new home sales from 2018 through 2019. In 2018, there were 25,620 new home sales. This figure decreased to 20,837 in 2019, marking a decline of 4,783 sales, or 18.7 percent. This period was characterized by a contraction in new home sales, which may have been influenced by broader economic conditions affecting the housing market.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 brought about a notable shift in the housing market dynamics within the metropolitan area. New home sales increased to 22,090 in 2020, up from 20,837 in 2019, representing an increase of 1,253 sales, or 6.0 percent. However, in 2021, new home sales declined significantly to 15,306, a decrease of 6,784 sales, or 30.7 percent from the previous year. The year 2022 saw a modest recovery with 17,212 new home sales, up from 15,306 in 2021, an increase of 1,906 sales, or 12.5 percent. This period reflects the volatility and adjustments in the housing market during the pandemic era.

In 2023, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced a resurgence in new home sales, reaching 23,105, up from 17,212 in 2022. This increase of 5,893 sales represents a growth of 34.2 percent. The upward trajectory continued into 2024, with new home sales rising to 24,977, an increase of 1,872 sales, or 8.1 percent from the previous year. In the first two months of 2026, there have been 3,009 new home sales, indicating a strong start to the year. The recent trends suggest a robust recovery and growth in the new home sales market within the metropolitan area.

Home-sales totals — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA, annual

Resale Home Sales Prices

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced a significant increase in resale home prices from 2020 to 2022. In 2020, the average resale home price was $309,871. By 2021, this figure had risen to $370,645, marking a substantial increase of 19.6 percent. The upward trend continued into 2022, with prices reaching $425,433, an increase of 14.8 percent from the previous year. This rapid escalation in home prices during this period can be attributed to heightened demand and limited supply, which were common trends across many metropolitan areas in the nation.

In 2023, the pace of price increases began to moderate. The average resale home price slightly decreased to $424,518, down from $425,433 in 2022. However, by 2024, prices had risen again to $427,263, reflecting a modest increase of 0.6 percent from the previous year. This stabilization indicates a cooling of the market compared to the rapid growth observed in the earlier years of the decade. The current price level suggests a return to more sustainable growth rates, aligning with broader economic conditions and market adjustments.

Comparing the recent trends with the pre-pandemic period, the average annual increase in home prices from 2013 to 2019 was approximately 5.8 percent. During this time, prices rose from $187,295 in 2013 to $287,640 in 2019. This period of steady growth contrasts with the accelerated price increases observed from 2020 to 2022. The current moderation in price growth suggests a reversion to the pre-pandemic average annual pace, indicating a potential stabilization in the housing market for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area.

New Home Sales Prices

The average sales price of new homes in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area has experienced notable fluctuations over the past decade. In 2018, the average sales price was $379,142. This figure decreased slightly in 2019 to $376,530 and continued to decline in 2020, reaching $370,894. However, a significant upward trend began in 2021, with the average price increasing to $413,721. This upward trajectory continued into 2022, when the average sales price rose sharply to $492,049. The peak was observed in 2023, with an average sales price of $500,625. This period of rising prices reflects a strong demand for new homes in the metropolitan area, likely driven by economic growth and population increases.

In the most recent two-year period, the average sales price of new homes in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area has shown a downward trend. From 2023 to 2024, the average sales price decreased by approximately 2.2 percent, from $500,625 to $489,582. This decline continued into 2025, with the average price further decreasing to $475,513, representing a 2.9 percent decrease from the previous year. The slight increase to $475,692 in the first two months of 2026 suggests a potential stabilization in prices. The recent decline in new home prices may be attributed to several factors, including increased builder incentives aimed at attracting buyers and a possible shift in the mix of homes being sold, with a greater proportion of lower-priced homes entering the market. These dynamics indicate a response to changing market conditions and consumer preferences in the metropolitan area.

Average sale price — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA, annual

Affordability

The affordability of home sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is influenced by the current price levels of existing homes. The average price of an existing home is approximately $414,656, which represents a decrease of 2.7 percent from the previous year. Although the specific mortgage rate is not provided, the prevailing economic conditions suggest that mortgage rates remain elevated compared to historical lows. This price level, combined with higher mortgage rates, implies a significant monthly cost for potential homebuyers, potentially limiting affordability for many households in the area.

In the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area, homeowners face several financial pressures that can impact affordability. Rising homeowners-insurance premiums are a concern, as they add to the overall cost of homeownership. Additionally, homeowners' association (HOA) fees and community development district (CDD) fees can further strain household budgets. Property taxes in the area also contribute to the financial burden, as they are a significant component of the total cost of owning a home. These factors collectively create headwinds for maintaining affordability in the housing market.

First-time homebuyers in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area may find it challenging to enter the market due to the current price levels and associated costs. The decrease in existing home prices offers some relief, but the overall affordability remains constrained by high mortgage rates and additional ownership costs. If mortgage rates ease over the forecast period, it could provide some relief to first-time buyers, potentially increasing their ability to purchase homes. However, the path to improved affordability will depend on a combination of factors, including changes in interest rates and local economic conditions.

Distressed Sales and Delinquent Mortgages

Following the Great Recession, distressed sales in the nation were notably high from 2010 to 2013. During this period, many homeowners faced financial difficulties, leading to increased foreclosures and short sales. As the economy gradually recovered throughout the 2010s, the volume of distressed sales declined significantly. This downward trend continued into the early 2020s, with distressed sales reaching a low point during the pandemic years of 2020 to 2022. The implementation of forbearance programs during the pandemic provided temporary relief to homeowners, further reducing the number of distressed sales. However, since 2023, there has been a modest uptick in distressed sales as these forbearance programs have ended and some homeowners have faced renewed financial pressures.

In the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area, the mortgage-delinquency rate is likely near historic lows. This is largely due to the accumulated home-price equity that has provided a buffer against rising delinquencies. Homeowners in the area have benefited from significant home-price appreciation, which has strengthened their financial positions and reduced the likelihood of mortgage defaults. Although specific MSA-level delinquency data is not currently integrated, the overall trend suggests that the metropolitan area is experiencing a stable housing market with limited distressed sales activity. The continued strength of the local economy and housing market conditions are expected to constrain any significant rise in mortgage delinquencies during the forecast period.

Geographic Submarkets

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Housing Market Area (HMA) encompasses a diverse range of geographic submarkets, each with distinct characteristics. The principal city of Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington serves as the core of the metropolitan area, offering a mix of high-density residential and commercial developments. Coastal or high-amenity submarkets, although not coastal in the traditional sense, include areas with significant cultural and recreational amenities that attract higher price levels and a more diverse product mix. In contrast, inland and exurban submarkets tend to feature more affordable housing options, often characterized by single-family homes and larger lot sizes, catering to families and individuals seeking more space at a lower cost.

During the forecast period, submarkets with more developable land are expected to absorb a greater share of new construction activity. These areas, typically located in the exurban regions of the HMA, provide opportunities for expansion and are likely to see an increase in residential developments. Conversely, established submarkets with limited land availability, particularly those with high-amenity features, are anticipated to experience stronger price appreciation due to their desirability and constrained supply. This differentiation in growth patterns will likely influence the overall housing dynamics within the HMA, with varying impacts on affordability and availability across different submarkets.

The "Location Fundamentals" section of this report will further elaborate on the characteristics of individual submarkets within the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA. Factors such as crime rates, school quality, natural hazards, and accessibility will be examined to provide a comprehensive understanding of each area's appeal and challenges. These elements are crucial in shaping the residential preferences and investment decisions of potential homebuyers and developers, ultimately influencing the housing market trends observed in the metropolitan area.

Homebuyer Profile

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area, like many sunbelt metros, attracts a diverse range of homebuyers, including retirees, move-down buyers from higher-cost metropolitan areas, and families returning to the region for its favorable climate and relatively lower cost of living. The area's appeal is enhanced by its robust economic growth, diverse cultural offerings, and a generally lower tax burden compared to other parts of the nation. Retirees are particularly drawn to the region's warm climate and the availability of amenities that cater to an active lifestyle. Meanwhile, move-down buyers from higher-cost areas are often seeking to capitalize on the equity gained from selling homes in more expensive markets, allowing them to purchase larger or more luxurious properties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area.

The share of cash buyers in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is typically elevated, a trend common in sunbelt markets. This prevalence of cash transactions can insulate the housing market from fluctuations in mortgage interest rates, as cash buyers are less sensitive to changes in borrowing costs. Consequently, the market may experience less volatility in response to interest rate hikes compared to regions with a higher proportion of financed purchases. The presence of cash buyers can also lead to increased competition for available homes, potentially driving up prices and reducing inventory for buyers reliant on mortgage financing.

Given the composition of the market, the share of Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loans may be influenced by the demographic profile of buyers. First-time homebuyers and veterans, who often utilize these loan programs, may find opportunities in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area due to its affordability relative to other major metropolitan areas. The availability of FHA and VA loans can provide critical support for these groups, enabling them to enter the housing market despite the competitive conditions fostered by the presence of cash buyers.

Sales Construction

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced a subdued pace of residential construction during the early 2010s. In 2016, the metropolitan area reported the construction of 17,261 single-family homes, 270 units in duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes, and 17,853 units in multifamily buildings with five or more units. This level of construction activity was consistent with the gradual recovery from the housing market downturn of the late 2000s. By 2017, the number of single-family homes permitted increased to 19,565, while multifamily units in buildings with five or more units rose to 20,223, indicating a strengthening housing market. The trend continued into 2018, with single-family permits reaching 20,321 units and multifamily permits slightly decreasing to 19,539 units. The steady increase in single-family home construction during this period reflected growing demand as the metropolitan area continued to recover economically.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 marked a significant shift in residential construction patterns in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. During this period, the number of single-family homes permitted surged to 25,688, up from 19,727 in 2019. This increase was accompanied by a notable decline in multifamily construction, with permits for units in buildings with five or more units dropping to 8,521. The pandemic-induced shift in housing preferences, with a greater emphasis on single-family homes, likely contributed to this change. In 2021, the trend continued with single-family permits rising to 30,019, while multifamily permits rebounded to 17,253 units. The year 2022 saw a further increase in single-family permits to 43,409, reflecting a robust demand for housing in the metropolitan area as the economy recovered from the pandemic's initial impact.

In the most recent years, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area has experienced a cooling in single-family permitting activity. In 2023, the number of single-family homes permitted decreased to 42,543, down from 43,409 in 2022. This decline continued into 2024, with single-family permits reaching 47,045. However, multifamily construction showed signs of recovery, with permits for units in buildings with five or more units increasing to 22,074 in 2023 and further to 22,912 in 2024. The shift in construction activity may be attributed to changing market dynamics, including potential adjustments in housing preferences and economic conditions. In 2025, single-family permits decreased to 39,230, while multifamily permits rose to 24,213, suggesting a continued rebalancing of the housing market in response to evolving demand and supply factors.

Annual sales permitting — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, full-year county files.

Forecast

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is projected to experience a demand for approximately 205,312 home sales during the next three years. This demand reflects the ongoing growth and economic vitality of the region, driven by factors such as population growth and employment opportunities. The metropolitan area continues to attract new residents, contributing to the robust demand for housing. The demand for home sales is expected to remain strong as the area continues to develop and expand its economic base.

Currently, there are 34,429 housing units under construction in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. These units will help to meet a portion of the projected demand over the next three years. The construction activity is indicative of the region's efforts to accommodate the growing population and the increasing need for housing. The completion of these units will provide some relief to the housing market, which has been experiencing high demand.

The housing market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is characterized by a dynamic and competitive environment. The ongoing construction activity is a response to the sustained demand for housing, which has been a hallmark of the region's growth. The addition of new housing units is expected to provide more options for homebuyers and contribute to the overall stability of the housing market. The metropolitan area remains an attractive destination for both residents and businesses, further fueling the demand for housing.

During the forecast period, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is likely to continue experiencing strong demand for home sales. The combination of economic growth, population increases, and new housing construction will shape the housing market dynamics. The region's ability to attract new residents and businesses will play a crucial role in sustaining the demand for housing. As the metropolitan area continues to evolve, the housing market is expected to adapt to the changing needs of its residents.

The projected demand for home sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area underscores the importance of ongoing construction and development efforts. The addition of new housing units will be essential in meeting the needs of the growing population and maintaining the vibrancy of the housing market. The region's economic prospects and quality of life continue to attract new residents, contributing to the sustained demand for housing. The housing market is poised to remain active and competitive throughout the forecast period.

In summary, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is expected to see a demand for 205,312 home sales over the next three years, with 34,429 units currently under construction to help meet this demand. The region's economic growth and population increases are key drivers of this demand, and ongoing construction efforts will be crucial in addressing the housing needs of the area. The metropolitan area is well-positioned to continue attracting new residents and businesses, ensuring a dynamic and competitive housing market.

Table 6. Demand for New Sales Units — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA, 3-Year Forecast

Rental Market

Current Conditions and Historic Trends

The rental housing market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is currently experiencing slightly soft conditions. As of February 2026, the apartment vacancy rate stands at 8.98 percent, up from 8.56 percent a year earlier, marking a year-over-year increase of 0.42 percentage points. This rise in vacancy rates indicates a loosening of the rental market, reflecting an increase in available rental units relative to demand.

The average rent in the metropolitan area is currently $1,417, representing a decrease of 2.07 percent from the previous year. Over the past three years, the trajectory of average rents has shown fluctuations, with a peak in early 2023 at $1,525, followed by a gradual decline. This downward trend in rents suggests a shift in market dynamics, possibly influenced by an increase in rental supply or changes in tenant demand.

Historically, the rental market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area has experienced significant changes. From 2010 to 2021, the market generally tightened as demand outpaced supply, driven by strong economic growth and net in-migration. However, since 2022, the market has softened, coinciding with a post-pandemic surge in new apartment deliveries that have eased market pressures. This increase in supply has contributed to the current slightly soft market conditions.

The vacancy rate data reveals specific inflection points over the past few years. Notably, the vacancy rate began to rise steadily from March 2023, reaching 8.98 percent by February 2026. This trend suggests a consistent increase in rental unit availability, which may be attributed to ongoing construction and development projects in the area. The gradual rise in vacancy rates highlights the impact of new supply entering the market, influencing both vacancy and rent levels.

Table 7. Rental and Apartment Quick Facts — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA

Rental Construction

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area experienced a subdued level of multifamily permitting in the early 2010s, a trend that was common across the nation following the Great Recession. During this period, the construction of multifamily units with five or more units was relatively restrained as the housing market gradually recovered. The number of permits issued for multifamily units in the metropolitan area began to show signs of recovery in the mid-2010s, reflecting a broader national trend of increasing demand for rental housing. This period marked the beginning of a more robust construction phase as economic conditions improved and demand for rental housing increased.

From 2018 through 2022, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area experienced a significant cycle of multifamily permitting activity. In 2018, there were 19,539 multifamily units permitted, which was followed by a slight decline to 16,677 units in 2019. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a sharp decrease in permitting activity, with only 8,521 units permitted, as labor and material constraints impacted the construction industry. However, the market rebounded strongly in 2021 with 17,253 units permitted, and 2022 marked a peak year with 32,650 units permitted. This peak was indicative of the strong demand for rental housing in the metropolitan area, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic.

In the most recent years, multifamily permitting activity in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area has shown signs of cooling. In 2023, there were 22,074 units permitted, followed by an increase to 22,912 units in 2024. The forecast for 2025 indicates a further increase to 24,213 units. This cooling trend is occurring as vacancy rates have risen, reflecting a shift in market dynamics. The increase in vacancies may be attributed to the substantial number of units completed in previous years, which has temporarily outpaced demand. As the market adjusts, the pace of new construction is expected to moderate, aligning more closely with current demand levels.

Annual rental permitting — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, full-year county files.

Recent Apartment Developments

• Amavi Celina — Located in Celina, this project consists of 271 homes.
• Avendale Painted Tree — Located in McKinney, this project consists of 276 homes.
• Avilla Boat Club — Located in Fort Worth, this project consists of 107 homes.
• Avilla Springs — Located in Melissa, this project consists of 212 homes.
• VLux Stoneridge — Located in Melissa, this project consists of 217 homes.
• Deco 969 — Located in Fort Worth, this project will contain 280 apartments and retail on the ground floor.

Rent Burden and Affordability

The average rent in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is $1,417. To remain under the HUD 30-percent rent-to-income threshold, a household would need a monthly gross income of approximately $4,723, or $56,681 annually. This income level is a benchmark for assessing affordability, and a significant portion of households in the metropolitan area likely meet this threshold. However, those earning below this level may experience rent burden, where a disproportionate share of their income is allocated to housing costs.

The average rent in the metropolitan area decreased by 2.07 percent during the past year. This decline in rent may alleviate some pressure on renters, although the overall affordability remains a concern. The interplay between rent growth, vacancy rates, and local wage growth is critical in understanding the rental market dynamics. In tourism-heavy metropolitan statistical areas, many renter households may still be rent-burdened despite recent decreases in average rent. The balance between supply and demand, as well as economic conditions, continues to influence the rental market.

Rental subsidies play a crucial role in moderating rent burden for low-income households in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area. Programs such as Housing Choice Vouchers, Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC), and USDA Section 515 rural rental housing provide essential support. These programs help to bridge the gap between market rents and what low-income households can afford, thereby reducing the incidence of rent burden. The availability and accessibility of these subsidies are vital for maintaining housing stability among the most vulnerable populations in the metropolitan area.

Rental Submarkets

The rental market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area exhibits a typical pattern observed in many large urban regions. Coastal and core-city submarkets, such as those in the principal city of Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, tend to have higher rents compared to their interior and exurban counterparts. These core areas often attract higher demand due to proximity to employment centers, cultural amenities, and transportation hubs. In contrast, the interior and exurban submarkets generally offer more affordable rental options, albeit with higher vacancy rates. This disparity is often attributed to the greater availability of land for development in these outlying areas, which can lead to an oversupply of rental units relative to demand.

In recent years, new multifamily supply in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area has been concentrated primarily in the core-city submarkets. This influx of new construction has been driven by strong economic growth and a steady increase in population, which has bolstered demand for rental housing. However, the concentration of new supply in these areas has also contributed to a slight increase in vacancy rates, as the market adjusts to the additional inventory. Despite this, the overall vacancy rates in the core-city submarkets remain relatively stable, supported by continued demand from both new residents and existing households seeking rental accommodations.

Looking ahead, the outlook for the rental market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area over the next 18 to 24 months is expected to remain positive. Continued economic expansion and population growth are likely to sustain demand for rental housing, particularly in the core-city submarkets. While new multifamily developments are anticipated to continue, the pace of construction may moderate slightly as developers respond to current vacancy trends. Overall, the rental market is expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand, with stable vacancy rates and modest rent growth anticipated during the forecast period.

HUD Fair Market Rents Context

Fair Market Rents (FMRs) represent the 40th percentile of gross rents for standard-quality units within a given area and are utilized in the Housing Choice Voucher program to determine payment standards. For the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area, the FMRs for fiscal year 2026 are set at $1,427 for a studio, $918 for a one-bedroom, $1,205 for a two-bedroom, $2,273 for a three-bedroom, and $2,021 for a four-bedroom unit. These figures provide a benchmark for assessing affordability and are critical for ensuring that voucher holders can access a range of housing options. The current average market-rate rent in the metropolitan area is approximately $1,417, which suggests that the FMRs for studio and two-bedroom units are closely aligned with prevailing market conditions, while the FMR for one-bedroom units is set below the current average rent.

The alignment of FMRs with current market rents has significant implications for affordable-housing providers and voucher recipients in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area. The FMRs for fiscal year 2026 indicate that voucher holders may face challenges in securing one-bedroom units, as the FMR is below the current average rent. This discrepancy could limit the availability of affordable housing options for individuals and families seeking smaller units. Conversely, the FMRs for studio and two-bedroom units are more competitive with the market, potentially easing access for voucher recipients. As the forecast period progresses, it will be essential for FMRs to keep pace with any changes in market rent growth to ensure continued affordability and accessibility for low-income households. The ability of FMRs to reflect market dynamics will play a crucial role in the effectiveness of the Housing Choice Voucher program in this metropolitan area.

HUD Fair Market Rents (FY2026) — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA

HUD Fair Market Rents are used for the Housing Choice Voucher program and as benchmarks for other HUD programs. They reflect the 40th percentile of gross rents for standard-quality rental units.

Forecast

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metropolitan area is projected to have a demand for approximately 96,618 rental units over the next three years. This demand reflects the ongoing growth and economic vitality of the region, driven by factors such as employment expansion and net in-migration. The metropolitan area has consistently attracted new residents due to its diverse economic base and relatively affordable cost of living compared to other major metropolitan areas in the nation. The demand for rental units is expected to remain robust as the area continues to experience population growth and a steady influx of new residents.

Currently, there are 21,401 rental units under construction in the metropolitan area. This level of construction activity indicates a strong response from developers to meet the anticipated demand. However, if the total number of units under construction, combined with any existing excess vacant inventory, exceeds the projected demand of 96,618 units, additional construction may not be needed. Such an oversupply could lead to further softening in the rental market, potentially impacting rental rates and occupancy levels.

The rental market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area has historically been resilient, supported by a diverse economy that includes significant contributions from the service-providing sectors, technology, and manufacturing. The region's ability to attract and retain a skilled workforce has been a key factor in sustaining rental demand. During the forecast period, the rental market is expected to continue benefiting from these economic strengths, although developers and investors should remain cautious of potential oversupply conditions.

In recent years, the metropolitan area has seen significant investment in infrastructure and public amenities, further enhancing its appeal to both residents and businesses. These developments have contributed to the area's attractiveness as a place to live and work, supporting ongoing demand for rental housing. As the region continues to grow, maintaining a balance between supply and demand will be crucial to ensuring the stability of the rental market.

Overall, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is poised for continued growth in rental demand over the next three years. The projected need for 96,618 rental units underscores the importance of strategic planning and development to accommodate the region's expanding population. Stakeholders in the housing market should carefully monitor construction activity and market conditions to avoid potential oversupply and ensure the long-term health of the rental market.

Table 8. Demand for New Rental Units — Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington HMA, 3-Year Forecast

Location Fundamentals

The standard HUD HMP sections above describe the metropolitan area's housing market itself. This section characterizes the underlying drivers of price formation — safety, schools, natural-hazard exposure, infrastructure, policy, and demographic tailwinds — from Zoomprop's proprietary thematic layers. These signals are the most-replicated non-housing inputs in the hedonic-pricing literature.

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area exhibits strong location fundamentals that are likely to influence home prices positively. The median school rating of 8.00 suggests a high quality of education, which is typically attractive to families and can drive demand for housing in the area. The top peril identified is hail, with a score of 94.26, indicating a significant risk that may affect property insurance costs and maintenance considerations. An average walk score of 47.0 reflects moderate walkability, which can appeal to residents seeking convenience and accessibility. The population growth of 14.2 percent over three years indicates a robust influx of residents, likely increasing housing demand. Additionally, a three-year income growth of 20.1 percent suggests rising purchasing power among residents, which can support higher home prices.

Safety

• Across the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area, Zoomprop aggregated 248,919 reported incidents over the most recent six months and 39,410 in the last 30 days.

• Most recent FBI UCR data for the state (2025) shows a violent-crime offense rate of 17.6 per 100,000 residents and a property-crime offense rate of 91.9 per 100,000 residents.

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR), state-level, latest full year available.

Schools

• 3,220 K-12 schools operate within the MSA (206 with GreatSchools ratings).
• Median GreatSchools rating is 8.0 out of 10; 104 schools score 8 or higher and 18 score 3 or lower.
• Average high-school graduation rate is 69.1 percent.
• Average student-to-teacher ratio is 14.6 to 1.
• Average share of students classified as low-income across schools in the MSA is 41.7 percent.

Top-rated schools in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area

Natural-hazard exposure (FEMA National Risk Index)

• Of 1,704 census tracts in the MSA, 829 (49%) rated Relatively Low; 600 (35%) rated Relatively Moderate; 162 (10%) rated Relatively High; 109 (6%) rated Very Low; 4 (0%) rated Very High.
• Leading perils by average FEMA NRI risk score across the MSA's tracts: Hail (score 94.3); Heat Wave (score 85.4); Tornado (score 83.3); Cold Wave (score 67.6); Riverine Flood (score 49.0).
• The MSA's tracts average a social-vulnerability index of 50.2 and a community-resilience score of 21.0 (both on FEMA's 0-100 scale).

Source: FEMA National Risk Index, mapped to census tracts and rolled up to the MSA. Flood and wildfire capitalization into home prices is well-documented post-2017 disclosure (Bin & Polasky 2004; Keys & Mulder 2024).

Accessibility & infrastructure

• Across 128 neighborhoods measured, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area has an average Walk Score of 47.0 and an average Bike Score of 42.1.
• 26 neighborhoods score above 70 on Walk Score ("very walkable"); 65 score below 50 ("car-dependent").
• The MSA is served by 9,212 public-transit stops operated by 4 transit agencies across 30 neighborhoods.

Demographic tailwinds

• Population-weighted median household income across the MSA is $83,913.
• Three-year median-income growth averages 20.1 percent.
• Three-year population growth averages 14.2 percent.
• Average neighborhood-level unemployment rate (ACS-derived) is 4.8 percent.
• Average ACS-reported median gross rent is $1,430.
• Average ACS-reported median owner-occupied home value is $275,143.

Terminology, Definitions, and Notes

A. Definitions

B. Data Lineage

• Employment & unemployment (Economic Conditions): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — CES for payrolls by supersector, LAUS for unemployment at MSA/state/nation, QCEW (BLS/Florida Commerce equivalents) as a fallback where CES is suppressed at this metro.
• Population & households (Population and Households): U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates (PEP V2025 flat files), 2020 decennial census base, American Community Survey 1- and 5-year data.
• Migration flows: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-year Metro-to-Metro Migration Flows.
• Home sales and prices (Home Sales Market): Zoomprop market data (metro home-price, sales-volume, and new-construction-price series); Freddie Mac (30-year fixed-rate mortgage); Zoomprop listing aggregates (months of inventory, days on market).
• Residential permits (Home Sales Market, Rental Market): U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — full-year county files aggregated to MSA.
• Rental market: Zoomprop rent and vacancy aggregates; unit-count series from Zoomprop; developer research via Tavily.
• Forecasts: Zoomprop trend projections over the most recent 5-year window of the underlying series, plus a 2.5 % frictional-vacancy adjustment for the housing-demand calculation.