Jacksonville, FL · Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis

Executive Summary

Housing Market Area Description

The Jacksonville, FL Housing Market Area (HMA) is located in the northeastern corner of the state of Florida. It encompasses the principal city of Jacksonville and includes the counties of Duval, Nassau, St. Johns, Baker, and Clay. The metropolitan area is characterized by its proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and the St. Johns River, which flows through the city, providing both economic and recreational opportunities. Jacksonville is the largest city by land area in the continental United States, covering over 840 square miles, and serves as a gateway to the state of Florida. The region is well-connected, with major highways facilitating commute patterns to and from adjacent metropolitan areas.

The economy of the Jacksonville HMA is diverse, with significant contributions from tourism, defense, and a large urban park system. The area is a major tourist destination, attracting approximately 8 million visitors annually, which contributes significantly to the local economy. The presence of military installations, such as Naval Air Station Jacksonville, plays a crucial role in the economic landscape, providing numerous jobs and supporting local businesses. Additionally, Jacksonville is home to several higher education institutions, including the University of North Florida and Jacksonville University, which contribute to the educational and cultural vibrancy of the area.

As of January 1, 2026, the population of the Jacksonville HMA is estimated at 1,785,500. The area is known for its youthful demographic, with an average age of 36, making it the youngest city in the state of Florida. A distinctive feature of Jacksonville is its extensive urban park system, which is one of the largest in the nation, offering residents and visitors a wide range of outdoor recreational activities. The city was named after General Andrew Jackson, although he never visited the area, adding a unique historical note to its identity.

Tools and Resources

• Find interim updates for this metropolitan area, and select geographies nationally, at PD&R's Market-at-a-Glance tool.
• Additional data for the HMA can be found in this report's supplemental tables and the *.audit.json sidecar file written beside this markdown.
• For information on HUD-supported activity in this area, see the Community Assessment Reporting Tool.

Market Qualifiers

Economy

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced a decline in nonfarm payrolls during the 12 months ending February 2026, with a reduction of approximately 2,288 jobs, or 0.3 percent, down from 805,433 jobs in the previous year to 803,145 jobs. This contraction in employment reflects a slight weakening in the local labor market. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3 percent, up from 3.5 percent a year earlier, indicating a shift towards a slightly slack labor market. The current unemployment rate is slightly above the neutral benchmark range of 4 to 5 percent, suggesting some easing in labor market conditions.

The increase in the unemployment rate over the past year suggests that the demand for labor has softened, potentially due to economic adjustments or sectoral shifts within the metropolitan area. Despite this, the unemployment rate remains within a range that is not excessively high, indicating that while the labor market is not as tight as it was previously, it is not experiencing severe slackness either. The slight slackness in the labor market could be attributed to various factors, including changes in industry demand or broader economic conditions affecting the region.

Historically, the Jacksonville metropolitan area has experienced fluctuations in employment levels, often influenced by national economic trends and local economic policies. The recent decline in nonfarm payrolls may reflect broader economic adjustments or specific challenges faced by key industries within the area. Despite the current downturn, the metropolitan area has shown resilience in the past, with periods of recovery following economic contractions.

During the 3-year forecast period, payrolls in the Jacksonville metropolitan area are expected to increase at an average annual rate of approximately 1.0 percent. This projection suggests a gradual recovery in the labor market, supported by potential economic growth and stabilization in key sectors. As the metropolitan area adapts to changing economic conditions, employment levels are anticipated to improve, contributing to a more balanced labor market environment.

Home Sales Market

The sales housing market in the metropolitan area is currently balanced. The average sales price for new homes is $450,031, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.4 percent from the previous year. Existing homes have an average sales price of $387,470, down 3.0 percent from the previous year. The total number of home sales in the metropolitan area was 24,734, a decrease of 8.2 percent from the previous year. The market has approximately 5.8 months of inventory available, indicating a balanced supply and demand dynamic.

Mortgage interest rates, while not specified, continue to play a significant role in shaping the housing market dynamics. The number of homes currently under construction is 8,499, which suggests ongoing development activity in the region. The demand for new sales units is projected to be 42,388 over the next three years, indicating a steady need for housing to accommodate population growth and economic expansion. The balanced market conditions suggest that both buyers and sellers are experiencing relatively stable market conditions, with neither side having a distinct advantage.

Rental Market

The apartment rental market in the metropolitan area is currently characterized by slightly soft conditions. The vacancy rate stands at 7.4 percent, unchanged from the previous year. This stability in vacancy rates suggests a balance between supply and demand, although the average rent has decreased by 1.5 percent year-over-year to approximately $1,338. The decline in rent indicates a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the market.

The demand for rental units remains significant, with 19,948 units currently sought after by renters. This demand is juxtaposed with the 2,588 units under construction, which could potentially exacerbate the slightly soft market conditions if demand does not increase proportionately. The current construction activity suggests that developers are optimistic about future demand, but the slight softness in the market indicates that additional construction during the forecast period could lead to increased vacancy rates if not matched by a corresponding rise in demand.

Given the current market dynamics, the introduction of new rental units could either stabilize or further soften the market, depending on future economic conditions and population growth. If net in-migration or job growth in the metropolitan area increases, it could absorb the new supply and stabilize vacancy rates. However, if these factors remain stagnant, the additional supply could lead to further declines in rent and increased vacancy rates.

The balance between supply and demand will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the rental market. Policymakers and developers should closely monitor economic indicators and demographic trends to ensure that the market remains balanced. Strategic planning and targeted development could help mitigate the risk of oversupply and support a healthy rental market during the forecast period.

3-Year Housing Demand Forecast

Total demand represents the estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. The forecast period is from the as-of date to 3 years forward.

Notable Conditions and Recent Developments

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area has experienced significant population growth, with the current population reaching 1,785,500 as of February 2026, up from 1,605,862 previously. This increase in population reflects a robust net in-migration trend, which has been a key driver of housing demand in the area. The growth in population has led to increased demand for both owner-occupied and rental housing, as new residents seek accommodation in the metropolitan area. The expanding population base is likely to continue to support housing demand during the forecast period, as more households form and seek housing options.

Sales conditions in the Jacksonville metropolitan area are currently balanced, indicating a stable environment for homebuyers and sellers. In contrast, rental conditions are slightly soft, suggesting that there is a relative oversupply of rental units compared to demand. This divergence may be attributed to the recent increase in multifamily construction, which has outpaced the growth in rental demand. For potential homebuyers, the balanced sales market offers opportunities to purchase homes without significant upward pressure on prices. Renters, on the other hand, may benefit from more favorable leasing terms and potential concessions as landlords seek to fill vacancies.

Policy and supply-side factors are influencing the housing market dynamics in Jacksonville. Rising construction costs, driven by increased material prices and labor shortages, have impacted the pace of new housing development. Additionally, insurance costs in Florida have been a concern, particularly in coastal areas, affecting the affordability of homeownership. Property taxes also play a role in shaping housing affordability and development decisions. These factors collectively contribute to the challenges faced by developers and policymakers in meeting the housing needs of the growing population.

The Jacksonville metropolitan area is distinctive compared to its peer metros due to its coastal exposure and the presence of a significant retiree population. The area's proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and the St. Johns River enhances its appeal as a desirable location for retirees seeking a warm climate and recreational opportunities. This demographic trend contributes to the demand for both single-family homes and age-restricted communities. Additionally, the tourism sector, driven by the area's beaches and cultural attractions, adds a seasonal dimension to the local economy, influencing housing demand patterns throughout the year.

Economic Conditions

Primary Local Economic Factors

The Jacksonville, Florida metropolitan area is characterized by a diverse economic base with significant contributions from several key sectors. The Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector is the largest, employing approximately 171,427 individuals. This sector is bolstered by major employers such as UPS Worldwide Parcel Delivery, which employs 4,500 people. The Education & Health Services sector follows closely, with 135,982 jobs, supported by institutions like Ascension St. Vincent's Hospital, which employs 5,050 individuals. The Professional & Business Services sector employs 116,891 people, while the Leisure & Hospitality sector provides jobs for 92,855 individuals. The Government sector also plays a crucial role, employing 80,164 people in the area.

Jacksonville is a vibrant metropolitan area with a population of 1.6 million, known for its tourism, defense, and expansive urban park system. The city attracts an estimated 8 million tourists annually, contributing significantly to the local economy. The economic impact of tourism in Duval County is estimated at $7.4 billion annually. Jacksonville is home to several educational institutions, including the University of North Florida and Jacksonville University, which contribute to the area's reputation as a center for education and research. The city's geographical diversity, with its rivers, wetlands, and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, enhances its appeal as a tourist destination.

Demographic and industry trends in Jacksonville indicate both opportunities and challenges for the local economy. The city's relatively young population, with an average age of 36, suggests a dynamic workforce that can support growth in sectors such as Professional & Business Services and Education & Health Services. The presence of major employers in the manufacturing and transportation sectors, such as Fleet Readiness Center Southeast and UPS Worldwide Parcel Delivery, underscores the area's strategic importance as a logistics hub. However, the reliance on tourism and service-oriented sectors may pose challenges in the face of economic downturns or shifts in consumer behavior.

The Jacksonville metropolitan area is poised for continued growth, driven by its strategic location and diverse economic base. The area's role as an economic driver for Northeast Florida is supported by its robust infrastructure and access to major transportation networks. The forecast period is expected to see further development in key sectors, supported by ongoing investments in infrastructure and education. As the state of Florida continues to grow, Jacksonville's position as a gateway to the region will likely attract additional businesses and residents, contributing to the area's economic vitality.

Table 1. Major Employers in the Jacksonville HMA

Estimates via Zoomprop research (Tavily live search of local economic-development and state workforce sources). Excludes local school districts.

Current Conditions — Nonfarm Payrolls

Nonfarm payrolls in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area totaled 803,100 jobs as of February 2026, reflecting a decrease of 2,300 jobs, or 0.3 percent, from the previous year. This decline marks a deceleration in job growth compared with the previous 12 months, when nonfarm payrolls increased. The reduction in employment is indicative of broader economic adjustments within the metropolitan area.

Within the service-providing sectors, Education and Health Services experienced the most significant growth, adding 4,200 jobs, a 3.2 percent increase. This growth may be attributed to expansions in healthcare facilities and educational institutions, which continue to drive demand for skilled labor. Leisure and Hospitality also saw an increase, with 500 jobs added, representing a 0.5 percent rise. This sector's growth is likely supported by ongoing tourism and hospitality activities in the region. Conversely, the Financial Activities sector experienced a notable decline, losing 3,000 jobs, or 4.0 percent, which may reflect restructuring or consolidation within financial institutions.

In the goods-producing sectors, Construction employment increased by 700 jobs, or 1.4 percent, indicating continued demand for construction services, possibly driven by infrastructure projects or commercial developments. However, Manufacturing employment decreased by 100 jobs, or 0.4 percent. This decline may be influenced by reduced demand for manufactured goods or challenges in the supply chain affecting production capabilities.

The Information sector experienced a sharp decline, losing 300 jobs, or 2.2 percent. This reduction could be associated with technological shifts or competitive pressures leading to downsizing within media and telecommunications companies. Additionally, the Professional and Business Services sector saw a decrease of 3,200 jobs, or 2.6 percent, which may be linked to reduced demand for professional services or changes in business operations. These declines highlight the challenges faced by certain sectors in adapting to evolving economic conditions.

Table 2. 12-Month Change in Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Jacksonville HMA, by Sector

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES). Rows where CES is suppressed at this MSA are reconstructed from QCEW county-level annual data.

Annual nonfarm payrolls — Jacksonville HMA, 10-year trend (annual average, thousands)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES).

Sector Deep Dive — Trade, Transportation & Utilities

The Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area currently employs approximately 171,427 individuals. This sector is a significant component of the local economy, representing a substantial share of total nonfarm employment. Over the past 12 months, the sector experienced a slight decline, with a reduction of 289 jobs, equating to a decrease of 0.17 percent. This change reflects the dynamic nature of the sector, which is influenced by various economic factors and consumer demand patterns.

The current dataset does not provide specific employer names within the Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector for the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area. However, this sector typically includes a diverse range of businesses, from large retail chains and logistics companies to utility providers. These employers play a crucial role in supporting the region's economic infrastructure and providing essential services to both residents and businesses.

Several qualitative factors drive the performance of the Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector in Jacksonville. The area's strategic location as a transportation hub, with access to major highways, railroads, and a deep-water port, supports robust trade and logistics activities. Additionally, the presence of a growing population in the metropolitan area fuels demand for retail and utility services. The sector's performance is also influenced by broader economic trends, such as consumer spending patterns and technological advancements in logistics and supply chain management.

Looking ahead, the Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector in Jacksonville is expected to experience moderate growth over the next three years. The forecast period may see an increase in employment opportunities as the metropolitan area continues to attract new residents and businesses. Investments in infrastructure and technology could further enhance the sector's capacity to meet the evolving needs of the local economy. As such, the sector is poised to remain a vital component of Jacksonville's economic landscape.

Current Conditions — Unemployment

The 12-month average unemployment rate in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area was 4.3 percent during the 12 months ending October 2023, up from 3.5 percent during the previous 12-month period. This increase indicates a slightly slack labor market, as the unemployment rate has risen over the past year. The increase in unemployment may reflect broader economic conditions affecting the region, including potential shifts in key industries or changes in labor force participation.

Comparatively, the unemployment rate in the Jacksonville metropolitan area is slightly higher than the state of Florida's rate of 4.0 percent but aligns closely with the national rate of 4.3 percent. This suggests that while the local labor market is experiencing some slack, it is not significantly out of step with broader state and national trends. The alignment with the national rate indicates that Jacksonville's labor market challenges may be part of a larger national economic pattern.

Over the past several years, the unemployment rate in Jacksonville has shown significant fluctuations. The rate peaked at 6.6 percent in 2020, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market. Since then, the unemployment rate has generally trended downward, reaching a low of 3.0 percent in 2022. However, the recent increase to 4.3 percent suggests a reversal of this trend, indicating potential challenges in maintaining low unemployment levels. This recent uptick may warrant attention to ensure that the labor market remains resilient in the face of evolving economic conditions.

Annual average unemployment rate — Jacksonville HMA

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS).

Commuting Patterns and Labor Force Dynamics

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area, with its coastal location and extensive transportation network, serves as a significant hub for commuting patterns. The presence of major interstates, such as I-95 and I-10, facilitates regional connectivity and supports the flow of commuters both within the metropolitan area and to adjacent regions. The proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and the St. Johns River also influences commuting, with bridges and ferries playing a role in daily travel. The metropolitan area benefits from its strategic position, attracting a workforce from surrounding counties and contributing to a dynamic commute-shed that supports economic growth and development.

Labor force participation in the Jacksonville metropolitan area is shaped by several demographic and economic factors. The area has a diverse population, including a significant number of retirees who may not participate in the labor force but contribute to the local economy through consumption and service demand. Additionally, the presence of tourism-related industries introduces a seasonal workforce component, which can affect labor force dynamics during peak tourist seasons. The aging population may also impact labor force participation rates, as older residents transition out of the workforce, potentially creating opportunities for younger workers and influencing employment trends in the area.

The shift toward remote and hybrid work arrangements during the pandemic has had a notable impact on commuting patterns and labor force dynamics in the Jacksonville metropolitan area. The increased flexibility in work locations has led to changes in residential preferences, with some workers opting to live further from traditional employment centers, thereby affecting demand for office space and residential real estate. This trend may result in a reallocation of resources within the metropolitan area, as businesses and residents adapt to new work environments. The long-term effects on commuting and office-sector demand will depend on the extent to which remote work becomes a permanent feature of the labor market in Jacksonville.

Wages and Income

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is characterized by a diverse economic base that includes significant contributions from the leisure, retail, and healthcare sectors. These sectors typically offer lower average wages compared to industries such as professional and financial services. As a result, the average wages in Jacksonville are likely to be lower than those in metropolitan areas with a higher concentration of professional and financial services. The presence of a large military installation and a growing logistics sector also influences the wage structure in the area, providing a mix of employment opportunities across various wage levels.

The rising cost of living in Jacksonville, FL, particularly in terms of home prices, insurance costs due to the area's vulnerability to hurricanes, and property taxes, has implications for the real incomes of residents. Nominal wage growth may not be keeping pace with these increasing costs, leading to tighter real incomes for middle-quintile renters. This situation can create financial pressure on households, as a larger portion of their income is allocated to housing and related expenses, leaving less disposable income for other needs.

Housing affordability remains a critical issue for existing residents in the Jacksonville metropolitan area. As home prices continue to rise, the gap between income growth and housing costs may widen, making it increasingly difficult for residents to afford homeownership or even rental housing. This dynamic can lead to increased demand for affordable housing options and may necessitate policy interventions to ensure that housing remains accessible to a broad range of income levels within the community.

Economic Periods of Significance

2011 Through 2019

During the period from 2011 to 2019, the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced a significant economic expansion, characterized by robust job growth and diversification across various sectors. The nonfarm payrolls in the metropolitan area increased steadily, with the number of jobs rising from 667,758 in 2016 to 724,250 in 2019. This represents an average annual increase of approximately 18,164 jobs, or 2.7 percent, over the three-year period from 2016 to 2019. The total growth in nonfarm payrolls from 2011 to 2019 was substantial, contributing to the longest continuous expansion in the metropolitan area during this timeframe.

The service-providing sectors were the primary drivers of job growth in the Jacksonville metropolitan area during this period. These sectors, which include professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality, benefited from increased consumer demand and business investment. The professional and business services sector, in particular, saw significant gains as companies expanded their operations and increased their workforce to meet the growing demand for services. This sector's growth was supported by the metropolitan area's favorable business climate and strategic location, which attracted new businesses and encouraged existing ones to expand.

The education and health services sector also played a crucial role in the economic expansion of the Jacksonville metropolitan area. The sector experienced growth due to the increasing demand for healthcare services, driven by population growth and an aging demographic. The expansion of healthcare facilities and the establishment of new educational institutions contributed to job creation in this sector. Additionally, the leisure and hospitality sector benefited from the metropolitan area's appeal as a tourist destination, leading to increased employment opportunities in hotels, restaurants, and entertainment venues.

The goods-producing sectors, although smaller in comparison to the service-providing sectors, also contributed to the overall job growth in the metropolitan area. Manufacturing and construction activities expanded as a result of increased demand for goods and infrastructure development. The construction sector, in particular, experienced growth due to residential and commercial development projects, which were supported by favorable economic conditions and population growth. This sectoral growth was indicative of the broader economic expansion occurring in the Jacksonville metropolitan area during this period.

Net in-migration to the Jacksonville metropolitan area further supported the economic expansion from 2011 to 2019. The area's attractive quality of life, coupled with employment opportunities, drew new residents, contributing to population growth and increased demand for housing and services. This influx of new residents not only bolstered the local economy but also supported the expansion of various sectors, particularly those related to consumer services and housing.

Overall, the period from 2011 to 2019 marked a time of significant economic growth and diversification for the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area. The expansion was driven by strong job growth in both the service-providing and goods-producing sectors, supported by favorable economic conditions and demographic trends. This period of expansion laid a solid foundation for the metropolitan area's continued economic development in the years that followed.

2020

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced a notable contraction in nonfarm payrolls during the 2020 pandemic. Nonfarm payrolls decreased to 706,117 jobs in 2020, down from 724,250 jobs in 2019, representing a decline of 18,133 jobs or approximately 2.5 percent. This contraction was reflective of the broader economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to widespread job losses across various sectors. The decline in employment was particularly pronounced in the service-providing sectors, which were heavily affected by pandemic-related restrictions and changes in consumer behavior.

The leisure and hospitality sector was among the hardest hit during this period, as travel restrictions and social distancing measures led to a significant reduction in tourism and dining activities. Similarly, the wholesale and retail trade sectors experienced weakness due to reduced consumer spending and disruptions in supply chains. In contrast, the transportation and utilities sector often benefited from the increased demand for e-commerce and home delivery services, which partially offset losses in other areas. Despite these challenges, the Jacksonville metropolitan area demonstrated resilience, with a recovery in nonfarm payrolls beginning in 2021 as restrictions eased and economic activity resumed.

2021 Through 2023

During the period from 2021 to 2023, the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced a significant recovery in nonfarm payrolls, following the economic disruptions of 2020. Nonfarm payrolls increased from an average of 735,808 jobs in 2021 to 791,633 jobs in 2023. This represents an average annual gain of approximately 27,913 jobs, or 3.7 percent, indicating a robust recovery in the local economy. The recovery was characterized by a resurgence in employment across various sectors, with notable contributions from both the service-providing and goods-producing sectors.

The service-providing sectors played a pivotal role in the recovery of the Jacksonville metropolitan area. These sectors, which include industries such as professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality, were instrumental in driving job growth. The professional and business services sector, in particular, benefited from increased demand for business support services and technological solutions as companies adapted to new operational models. Additionally, the education and health services sector expanded as healthcare facilities and educational institutions resumed full operations, addressing the pent-up demand for services that had been deferred during the pandemic.

Leisure and hospitality, a sector severely impacted by the pandemic, also saw a resurgence during this period. As restrictions eased and consumer confidence improved, there was a notable increase in tourism and local spending, which contributed to job creation in restaurants, hotels, and entertainment venues. This sector's recovery was further supported by the reopening of local attractions and the resumption of events, which drew visitors back to the area and stimulated economic activity.

The goods-producing sectors, including manufacturing and construction, also contributed to the recovery in the Jacksonville metropolitan area. The construction sector, in particular, experienced growth driven by increased residential and commercial development. This was supported by favorable interest rates and a growing population, which spurred demand for new housing and infrastructure projects. Manufacturing, while not as prominent as the service-providing sectors, also saw gains as supply chain disruptions eased and production levels increased to meet rising demand.

Overall, the recovery in the Jacksonville metropolitan area from 2021 to 2023 was marked by a balanced expansion across multiple sectors, reflecting the resilience and adaptability of the local economy. The combination of job growth in both service-providing and goods-producing sectors, along with supportive economic conditions, facilitated a strong rebound from the challenges faced in 2020. As the area continues to grow, these sectors are expected to remain key drivers of economic activity during the forecast period.

Forecast

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is expected to experience an annual growth rate of 1.4 percent in nonfarm payrolls over the next three years. This growth is anticipated to be driven primarily by the service-providing sectors, which have historically been a significant contributor to the local economy. The current level of nonfarm payrolls stands at approximately 803,100 jobs. As the metropolitan area continues to expand, sectors such as professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality are likely to lead the growth, benefiting from both local demand and broader economic trends.

However, several factors may pose challenges to the economic forecast for the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area. Elevated interest rates could impact borrowing costs, potentially slowing down business investments and consumer spending. Additionally, property-insurance costs, particularly in hurricane-prone areas, may deter new housing developments and affect the affordability of homeownership. Demographic aging could also influence the labor market, as a growing proportion of the population enters retirement age, potentially leading to a tighter labor supply. Furthermore, any moderation in net in-migration could affect the pace of economic expansion, as the influx of new residents has historically supported both housing demand and labor force growth.

Population and Households

Population Trends

The population of the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced significant growth from 2010 to 2020. During this period, the population increased from 1,613,022 in 2020 to 1,785,500 in 2025. This represents an average annual increase of approximately 17,248 people, or a growth rate of 1.1 percent per year. This steady growth can be attributed to factors such as net in-migration and natural population increase, which have contributed to the area's expanding population base.

Following 2020, the population growth in the Jacksonville metropolitan area accelerated compared to the previous decade. From 2020 to 2025, the population increased from 1,613,022 to 1,785,500, reflecting an average annual addition of 34,496 people. This represents a growth rate of approximately 2.1 percent per year, indicating a more rapid expansion than during the 2010s. The increase in population during this period can be attributed to factors such as increased net in-migration, possibly driven by the area's economic opportunities and quality of life.

As of 2025, the population of the Jacksonville metropolitan area is estimated at 1,785,500. Looking ahead, the population is expected to continue growing, reaching approximately 1,892,902 by 2028. This trend extrapolation suggests an average annual increase of 35,801 people, or a growth rate of 2.0 percent per year. The sustained growth is indicative of ongoing trends in migration and demographic changes that favor the Jacksonville area.

The population growth in the Jacksonville metropolitan area is likely driven by several factors, including net in-migration from other regions. The area's appeal to retirees, as well as its attractiveness to remote workers seeking a favorable living environment, may also contribute to the population increase. These factors, combined with the area's economic opportunities, suggest a continued influx of new residents in the coming years.

Table 3. Population and Household Quick Facts — Jacksonville HMA

Forecast values extend the most recent vintage of Census Population Estimates and ACS over a 3-year horizon.

Components of Population Change

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area has experienced significant population growth in recent years, driven primarily by net in-migration. The population increased from 1,605,862 in 2020 to 1,785,500 in 2025, reflecting a substantial rise of 179,638 people, or 11.2 percent. This growth is characteristic of many sunbelt metropolitan areas, where an aging population often results in a net natural decline, meaning that deaths outnumber births. Consequently, all population growth in these areas is typically attributed to net in-migration, as individuals and families relocate to take advantage of the region's economic opportunities, climate, and lifestyle.

In the Jacksonville metropolitan area, the relative contributions of natural increase and net in-migration to population growth are influenced by the age composition of the population. With a significant portion of the population being older, the natural increase is likely minimal, if not negative. This demographic trend suggests that the majority of the population growth is due to net in-migration. Younger individuals and families moving into the area contribute to the labor force and stimulate economic activity, further attracting more residents. The influx of new residents is a critical factor in sustaining the area's population growth, given the limited contribution from natural increase.

The implications of this population growth for household formation and housing demand are substantial. As the population continues to rise, driven by net in-migration, the demand for housing is expected to increase. This demand will likely lead to the development of new housing units and the expansion of existing residential areas to accommodate the growing population. The increase in household formation will also stimulate demand for various housing types, from single-family homes to multifamily units, catering to the diverse needs of new residents. As a result, the housing market in the Jacksonville metropolitan area is poised for continued growth, driven by the sustained influx of new residents and the corresponding demand for housing.

Migration Trends

Net in-migration has been the primary driver of recent population growth in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area. This trend is consistent with many growing sunbelt metropolitan areas, where favorable climate, economic opportunities, and lifestyle amenities attract new residents. The majority of the population growth in Jacksonville is attributed to net in-migration, as individuals and families relocate to the area seeking a more affordable cost of living and a higher quality of life.

While specific migration flows are not detailed, it is likely that Jacksonville attracts residents from nearby metropolitan areas as well as major coastal metros. The influx of retirees from higher-cost regions such as the Northeast and Midwest is a common pattern observed in Florida, contributing to the area's population growth. Additionally, Jacksonville's proximity to other Florida cities and its appeal as a business-friendly environment may draw individuals from within the state seeking new employment opportunities.

Price-disparity-driven migration is a significant factor influencing the movement of people to Jacksonville. As housing costs in larger metropolitan areas continue to rise, Jacksonville offers a more affordable alternative, making it an attractive destination for those looking to relocate from higher-cost areas. This trend of moving from higher-cost to lower-cost metros is a notable driver of the population increase in Jacksonville, as individuals seek to maximize their purchasing power and improve their standard of living.

Household Trends

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced significant household growth, with the number of households increasing from 658,403 to 732,055. This represents an absolute change of 73,652 households, or an 11.2 percent increase. This growth in households is indicative of a robust housing market and may suggest that household growth is outpacing population growth, as the increase in households is substantial over the period. Such a trend could be driven by factors such as net in-migration and economic opportunities attracting new residents to the area.

The homeownership rate in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is currently 68 percent. This rate is indicative of a stable housing market with a significant proportion of owner-occupied units. Compared to 2020, the current homeownership rate suggests a mature housing market, potentially reflecting a demographic composition that includes a higher proportion of retirees and mature families. A higher homeownership rate can also imply stability in the housing market, as owner-occupied units tend to be less volatile than rental markets.

Looking forward, the trend extrapolation for the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area suggests continued growth in the number of households over the next three years. While specific forecast values are not provided, the historical growth rate of 11.2 percent indicates a positive trajectory. This anticipated growth will likely continue to be supported by factors such as economic development, employment opportunities, and the area's attractiveness to new residents. The forecast period will be critical in determining how these factors influence the housing market and household formation in the metropolitan area.

Household Composition

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area currently has approximately 732,055 households. The homeownership rate in the area is 68 percent, indicating a strong preference for owner-occupied housing. This suggests a typical household composition that leans towards family households, as homeownership is often associated with family stability and long-term residence. The remaining 32 percent of households are likely renter-occupied, which may include a higher proportion of non-family households, such as singles or roommates, who typically prefer the flexibility of renting.

The aging population in the Jacksonville metropolitan area has implications for household-size trends. As the population ages, there is a tendency for household sizes to decrease. Older adults often transition from larger family homes to smaller living arrangements, either by choice or necessity, resulting in a higher demand for smaller household sizes. This demographic shift can lead to an increase in single-person households or couples without children, further contributing to the trend of smaller average household sizes in the area.

This trend towards smaller households translates into specific demands for housing unit sizes. There is likely to be an increased demand for two-bedroom owner-occupied single-family homes or townhomes, which cater to smaller households such as empty nesters or young couples. Conversely, there may be a decreased demand for larger homes with four or more bedrooms, which are typically sought after by larger family households. The housing market in Jacksonville may need to adjust to these changing preferences by increasing the availability of smaller, more manageable housing units to meet the needs of its evolving population.

Forecast

The population of the metropolitan area is projected to increase from 1,785,500 in 2023 to 1,892,902 by 2028. This represents an increase of 107,402 people, or approximately 6 percent, over the forecast period. The anticipated growth reflects ongoing trends in net in-migration and natural increase, contributing to the overall expansion of the metropolitan area. The population growth is expected to support demand in the housing market, as well as stimulate economic activity in various sectors.

While the forecast for household growth is not specified, the increase in population suggests a potential rise in the number of households. This could lead to increased demand for housing units, both owner-occupied and rental, as new residents seek accommodation. The metropolitan area may experience shifts in housing preferences, with potential implications for housing affordability and availability. The local government and developers may need to consider these factors in their planning and development strategies.

The projected population growth aligns with broader trends observed in similar metropolitan areas, where economic opportunities and quality of life attract new residents. The metropolitan area is likely to benefit from its strategic location, infrastructure, and amenities, which contribute to its appeal as a destination for individuals and families. As the population expands, there may be increased pressure on public services and infrastructure, necessitating strategic investments to maintain quality of life.

During the forecast period, the metropolitan area may also experience changes in demographic composition, with potential impacts on the labor market and consumer preferences. The influx of new residents could diversify the local economy, fostering innovation and entrepreneurship. Policymakers and stakeholders may need to address challenges related to urban growth, such as transportation, education, and healthcare, to ensure sustainable development.

Overall, the projected population increase underscores the metropolitan area's potential for continued growth and development. The anticipated expansion presents opportunities and challenges that will require coordinated efforts from public and private sectors. By addressing these challenges proactively, the metropolitan area can position itself for a prosperous future, benefiting both current and future residents.

Home Sales Market

Current Conditions

The home sales market in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is currently balanced, with a months of inventory figure of 5.8 months as of February 2026. This level of inventory indicates a stable market where supply and demand are relatively aligned. During the 12 months ending February 2026, the total number of home sales was approximately 24,734, representing a decrease of 8.2 percent from the previous year. The decline in sales activity suggests a cooling market, potentially influenced by broader economic conditions.

Total home sales in the Jacksonville metropolitan area have decreased from the previous year, with 24,734 homes sold compared to a higher number in the prior period. This decline of 8.2 percent may be attributed to several factors, including elevated mortgage rates and increased insurance costs, particularly in hurricane-prone areas like Florida. These factors can impact buyer affordability and willingness to purchase homes, contributing to the observed reduction in sales.

The current mortgage rate context is not specified, but elevated rates generally affect affordability and can dampen demand in the housing market. When mortgage rates rise, the cost of borrowing increases, which can lead to a decrease in purchasing power for potential homebuyers. This can result in a slowdown in home sales as buyers may delay purchasing decisions or seek more affordable housing options.

The average price of homes in the Jacksonville metropolitan area has experienced a decline. The average price for new homes is approximately $450,031, down 0.4 percent from the previous year. Similarly, the average price for existing homes is approximately $387,470, reflecting a decrease of 3.0 percent. These price adjustments may indicate a market correction following previous periods of rapid price appreciation, aligning with the current balanced market conditions.

Table 5. Home Sales Quick Facts — Jacksonville HMA

Resale Home Sales

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced a notable increase in resale home sales from 2013 through 2017. In 2013, there were 23,715 existing home sales, which marked the beginning of a period of growth following the Great Recession. By 2014, sales had increased to 24,983, and this upward trend continued in 2015 with 28,302 sales. The growth persisted in 2016 with 29,800 sales and reached 31,175 in 2017. However, in 2018, the market experienced a decline, with sales decreasing to 22,583, and this downward trend continued into 2019 with 22,207 sales.

The years 2020 and 2021 marked a significant boom in the resale home market in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area, driven by historically low interest rates. In 2020, existing home sales slightly increased to 22,498, but the most substantial growth occurred in 2021, when sales surged to 32,111, the peak year for the period. This increase represented a significant rise from the previous year, reflecting the heightened demand for housing during this time.

Following the peak in 2021, the resale home market in Jacksonville, FL experienced a slowdown beginning in 2022, influenced by rising interest rates. In 2022, existing home sales fell to 21,911, a decrease from the previous year. The decline continued into 2023, with sales dropping to 13,664, representing a 37.7 percent decrease from 2022. The forecast for 2024 indicates a slight recovery, with sales expected to increase to 14,530, up from 2023. However, the market is projected to face a significant downturn in 2026, with sales anticipated to fall sharply to 2,231.

New Home Sales

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced a notable increase in new home sales from 2018 through 2019. In 2018, there were 8,794 new home sales, which rose to 9,648 in 2019. This represents an increase of 854 homes, or 9.7 percent. This growth period reflects a strengthening housing market in the metropolitan area, likely driven by favorable economic conditions and population growth during these years.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 marked a significant surge in new home sales in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area. In 2020, new home sales increased to 11,468, up from 9,648 in 2019, representing an increase of 1,820 homes, or 18.9 percent. This upward trend continued into 2021, with sales reaching 11,555 homes, and further into 2022, peaking at 12,391 homes. The pandemic-era surge in new home sales can be attributed to factors such as low mortgage interest rates and increased demand for housing as remote work became more prevalent.

In 2023, new home sales in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area reached 12,552, marking a slight increase from the previous year. However, the trajectory shifted in 2024, with sales declining to 10,577, a decrease of 1,975 homes, or 15.7 percent, from 2023. This downward trend continued into 2025, with sales further decreasing to 8,321 homes, representing a decline of 2,256 homes, or 21.3 percent, from 2024. The first two months of 2026 saw only 959 new home sales, indicating a continued slowdown in the market. This recent decline may reflect changing economic conditions, including potential increases in mortgage rates and shifts in housing demand.

Home-sales totals — Jacksonville HMA, annual

Resale Home Sales Prices

During the period from 2020 to 2022, the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced a significant increase in resale home prices. In 2020, the average resale home price was $280,496.90, which marked a substantial rise from the previous year. This upward trend continued into 2021, with the average price reaching $345,128.70, representing an increase of 23 percent from 2020. The momentum carried into 2022, where the average resale home price surged to $404,119.16, up from $345,128.70 in 2021, reflecting a 17 percent increase. This period of rapid price escalation was indicative of heightened demand and constrained supply in the housing market.

In 2023, the resale home prices in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area began to moderate. The average price for 2023 was $401,325.88, slightly down from $404,119.16 in 2022, indicating a decrease of less than 1 percent. This moderation continued into 2024, with the average price further declining to $399,977.07. The trend suggests a stabilization in the market, as the sharp increases observed in the previous years have tapered off. By 2025, the average resale home price decreased to $385,808.42, continuing the trend of moderation in the housing market.

Comparing the recent trends with the pre-pandemic period, the average annual pace of price increases was typically around 5 to 6 percent. For instance, from 2013 to 2019, the average resale home price rose from $179,461.23 to $258,738.29, reflecting a steady increase over the years. The rapid price escalation during the pandemic years of 2020 to 2022 far exceeded this historical average, highlighting the extraordinary market conditions during that time. The recent moderation in price growth suggests a return to more typical market dynamics, aligning closer to the historical average annual pace of increase.

New Home Sales Prices

The average sales price of new homes in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area has experienced significant fluctuations over the past decade. In 2018, the average sales price was $330,824. This figure saw a modest increase in 2019, reaching $332,268. The upward trend continued in 2020, with the average price rising to $338,740. A more pronounced increase occurred in 2021, when the average sales price climbed to $369,444. The most substantial growth was observed in 2022, with the average price surging to $447,289. This upward trajectory continued into 2023, as the average sales price reached $466,522. However, in 2025, the average price declined to $444,708, marking a departure from the previous years' growth.

In the most recent two-year period, the average sales price of new homes in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area has shown a downward trend. From 2024 to 2025, the average price decreased by approximately 7.4 percent, from $480,051 to $444,708. This decline can be attributed to several factors, including potential builder incentives aimed at stimulating sales and a possible shift in the mix of homes sold, with a greater proportion of lower-priced homes entering the market. In 2026, the average price showed a slight recovery, increasing to $452,341 during the first two months of the year. This recent uptick may indicate a stabilization in the market, as builders adjust their strategies to align with current demand and economic conditions.

Average sale price — Jacksonville HMA, annual

Affordability

The affordability of home sales in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is currently influenced by the existing-home price level, which stands at approximately $387,470. Although the specific mortgage rate is not provided, prevailing rates have generally been higher in recent months, which could imply a significant monthly cost burden for potential homebuyers. The existing-home price has decreased by 3.0 percent from the previous year, which may offer some relief to buyers. However, the overall affordability remains a challenge, especially for those relying on financing, as higher interest rates can offset the benefits of lower home prices.

In the state of Florida, homeowners face additional financial pressures that impact affordability. Rising homeowners-insurance premiums have become a significant concern, driven by increased risks from natural disasters and regulatory changes. Additionally, homeowners association (HOA) and community development district (CDD) fees can add substantial costs to homeownership. Property taxes in Florida, while relatively moderate compared to some states, still contribute to the overall financial burden on homeowners. These factors collectively exacerbate the affordability challenges in the Jacksonville metropolitan area, making it more difficult for residents to manage the costs associated with homeownership.

For first-time homebuyers in Jacksonville, the current market conditions present notable challenges. The combination of high home prices and elevated interest rates can make it difficult for these buyers to enter the market. However, if mortgage rates ease during the forecast period, it could provide some relief and potentially increase affordability. Lower rates would reduce monthly mortgage payments, making homeownership more accessible to first-time buyers. This potential shift could stimulate demand and support a more balanced housing market in the Jacksonville metropolitan area.

Distressed Sales and Delinquent Mortgages

Following the Great Recession, distressed sales in the nation were notably high from 2010 to 2013, as many homeowners faced financial difficulties and foreclosures were prevalent. Throughout the 2010s, the rate of distressed sales gradually declined as the economy recovered and housing markets stabilized. This trend continued into the early 2020s, with distressed sales reaching a trough during the pandemic years of 2020 to 2022, largely due to widespread forbearance programs that provided temporary relief to homeowners. Since 2023, there has been a modest uptick in distressed sales as these forbearance programs have ended and some homeowners have faced renewed financial pressures.

In the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area, the mortgage-delinquency rate is likely near historic lows. This stability is supported by the accumulated home-price equity that has constrained the rise in delinquencies. Homeowners in the area have benefited from significant home-price appreciation, which has bolstered equity and provided a buffer against potential financial distress. Although specific MSA-level delinquency data is not yet integrated, the broader trends suggest that the Jacksonville housing market remains resilient. The accumulated equity acts as a safeguard, reducing the likelihood of a significant increase in distressed sales in the near term.

Geographic Submarkets

The Jacksonville, FL Housing Market Area (HMA) is characterized by a diverse range of geographic submarkets, each with distinct housing market dynamics. The principal city of Jacksonville serves as the core of the HMA, offering a mix of urban housing options, including high-density apartments and single-family homes. Coastal submarkets, known for their high-amenity features such as proximity to beaches and waterfront views, typically command higher price levels compared to inland and exurban areas. These coastal regions often feature a mix of luxury homes and vacation properties, appealing to both permanent residents and seasonal visitors. In contrast, the inland and exurban submarkets offer more affordable housing options, with a greater prevalence of single-family homes and larger lot sizes, catering to families and individuals seeking more space at a lower cost.

During the forecast period, differentiation among submarkets in the Jacksonville HMA is expected to continue, driven by varying levels of developable land and demand pressures. Submarkets with more available land, particularly those located inland and in exurban areas, are likely to absorb a larger share of new construction activity. This is anticipated to result in a greater supply of new homes, potentially moderating price increases in these areas. Conversely, established coastal submarkets, with limited opportunities for new development, are expected to experience stronger price appreciation due to their desirable locations and limited housing supply. These dynamics are likely to influence the overall housing market trends in the HMA, with varying impacts on affordability and availability across different submarkets.

The geographic submarkets within the Jacksonville HMA are further characterized by distinct location fundamentals, which will be detailed in the "Location Fundamentals" section of this report. Factors such as crime rates, school quality, environmental hazards, and accessibility to employment centers play a significant role in shaping the desirability and market conditions of each submarket. Coastal areas may benefit from higher accessibility to recreational amenities, while inland submarkets might offer better access to employment hubs and educational institutions. Understanding these location fundamentals is crucial for stakeholders and potential homebuyers as they navigate the diverse housing landscape of the Jacksonville HMA.

Homebuyer Profile

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area, like many sunbelt metros, attracts a diverse range of homebuyers, particularly retirees and move-down buyers from higher-cost metropolitan areas. These buyers are often drawn to the region due to its favorable climate and relatively lower cost of living compared to northern states. Additionally, families returning to the area contribute to the demand for housing, seeking the lifestyle and economic opportunities available in Jacksonville. The area's appeal to these demographics is further enhanced by its amenities, including beaches, golf courses, and a vibrant cultural scene, which are attractive to both retirees and younger families alike.

The share of cash buyers in the Jacksonville metropolitan area is typically elevated, a common characteristic in sunbelt markets. This trend has significant implications for the housing market's sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates. With a higher proportion of transactions being completed in cash, the market is somewhat insulated from the fluctuations in mortgage interest rates that can impact buyer affordability and demand. This dynamic can lead to a more stable housing market, as cash buyers are less affected by the cost of borrowing, allowing for continued activity even when mortgage rates rise.

Given the composition of the market, the share of FHA and VA loans may be lower compared to other regions. The prevalence of cash transactions and the presence of retirees, who often have substantial equity from previous home sales, reduce the reliance on these types of government-backed loans. However, for younger families and first-time homebuyers, FHA and VA loans remain important tools for accessing homeownership, providing opportunities for those who may not have the means for a large down payment. The balance between cash buyers and those utilizing FHA and VA loans contributes to the overall diversity and resilience of the Jacksonville housing market.

Sales Construction

During the early 2010s, the pace of residential construction in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area was relatively subdued. In 2016, the number of single-family homes permitted was 8,499, while permits for units in buildings with two to four units totaled 155. Multifamily construction, as indicated by units in buildings with five or more units, accounted for 3,044 permits. This period was characterized by a gradual increase in construction activity, as evidenced by the rise in single-family permits to 9,829 in 2017 and 10,756 in 2018. The multifamily sector also saw fluctuations, with permits increasing to 4,576 in 2018, up from 3,010 in 2017.

The period from 2020 to 2022 marked a significant surge in residential permitting activity in the Jacksonville metropolitan area, reflecting a post-pandemic construction boom. In 2020, single-family permits rose to 13,046, and multifamily permits for units in buildings with five or more units were 3,083. The following year, 2021, saw a substantial increase in single-family permits to 16,521, while multifamily permits surged to 5,873. This upward trend continued into 2022, with single-family permits at 14,368 and multifamily permits reaching a peak of 8,614. The increase in construction activity during this period can be attributed to heightened demand for housing, driven by factors such as low interest rates and increased net in-migration to the area.

In the latest two years, 2023 and 2024, the permitting activity in the Jacksonville metropolitan area has shown signs of cooling. In 2023, single-family permits decreased to 12,402, while multifamily permits for units in buildings with five or more units declined to 7,414. The trend continued into 2024, with single-family permits slightly increasing to 12,938, but multifamily permits experiencing a significant drop to 1,753. This cooling trend may be influenced by rising interest rates and a potential stabilization of the housing market following the post-pandemic surge. The decrease in multifamily permits, in particular, suggests a shift in market dynamics, possibly due to changes in housing preferences or economic conditions affecting the feasibility of large-scale multifamily developments.

Annual sales permitting — Jacksonville HMA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, full-year county files.

Forecast

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is projected to experience a demand for 42,388 home sales during the next three years. This demand reflects the ongoing growth and attractiveness of the region as a desirable place to live and work. The current level of residential construction activity, with 8,499 units under construction, will contribute to meeting some of this demand. The balance between new construction and demand will be crucial in maintaining market stability and affordability in the area.

The demand for home sales in Jacksonville is driven by several factors, including economic growth and net in-migration. The metropolitan area has been experiencing a steady influx of new residents, attracted by employment opportunities and a favorable living environment. This population growth supports the housing market by increasing the need for additional housing units. The construction of new homes is essential to accommodate this growing population and to prevent potential shortages in the housing supply.

The 8,499 units currently under construction represent a significant portion of the anticipated demand, yet additional development will be necessary to fully satisfy the projected need for 42,388 home sales. Developers and policymakers must work together to ensure that the pace of construction aligns with the demand to avoid potential imbalances in the housing market. This alignment will help maintain housing affordability and accessibility for current and future residents of the Jacksonville metropolitan area.

During the forecast period, the housing market in Jacksonville is expected to remain robust, supported by continued economic expansion and population growth. The construction sector plays a vital role in this dynamic, as it not only provides housing but also contributes to the local economy through job creation and investment. The ongoing development activity is a positive indicator of the region's economic health and its ability to attract new residents and businesses.

The interplay between housing demand and supply will be a key factor in shaping the future of the Jacksonville housing market. As the metropolitan area continues to grow, the need for strategic planning and investment in infrastructure and housing will become increasingly important. Ensuring that the housing market remains balanced will require careful monitoring of construction activity and demand trends throughout the forecast period.

In conclusion, the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is poised for significant growth in home sales demand over the next three years, with 42,388 units projected. The 8,499 units currently under construction will help meet some of this demand, but additional efforts will be necessary to ensure that the housing market remains stable and affordable. The collaboration between developers, policymakers, and the community will be essential in achieving these goals and supporting the continued prosperity of the region.

Table 6. Demand for New Sales Units — Jacksonville HMA, 3-Year Forecast

Rental Market

Current Conditions and Historic Trends

The rental housing market in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is currently experiencing slightly soft conditions. The apartment vacancy rate as of February 2026 is 7.44 percent, unchanged from the previous year. This stability in the vacancy rate suggests a balance between supply and demand in the rental market over the past year.

The average rent in the metropolitan area is $1,338, reflecting a decrease of 1.45 percent from the previous year. Over the past three years, the average rent has shown a downward trajectory, with a notable decline from $1,437 in March 2023 to the current level. This trend indicates a softening in rental prices, likely influenced by increased supply and changing market dynamics.

Historically, the rental market in Jacksonville, FL experienced tightening conditions from 2010 through 2021, characterized by decreasing vacancy rates and rising rents. This period of tightening was followed by a softening trend beginning in 2022, as a surge in post-pandemic housing deliveries eased market pressures. The increased supply has contributed to the current slightly soft market conditions and stabilized vacancy rates.

The vacancy rate data reveals specific inflection points over the past few years. Notably, the vacancy rate increased from 6.97 percent in March 2023 to a peak of 7.60 percent in May 2025, before gradually declining to the current rate of 7.44 percent. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of the rental market, influenced by factors such as new housing deliveries and shifts in demand.

Table 7. Rental and Apartment Quick Facts — Jacksonville HMA

Rental Construction

During the early 2010s, the rental construction market in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area experienced subdued levels of permitting activity, a trend observed in many regions following the Great Recession. Multifamily construction, particularly for buildings with five or more units, was limited as the market gradually recovered from the economic downturn. This period was characterized by cautious investment and a focus on stabilizing the housing market. The number of multifamily units permitted in 2016 was 3,044, reflecting a conservative approach to new construction projects during this time.

The period from 2018 to 2022 marked a significant cycle of multifamily permitting in the Jacksonville metropolitan area, with a notable increase in activity. In 2018, there were 4,576 units permitted, signaling a shift towards more robust construction efforts. This upward trend continued, reaching a peak in 2022 with 8,614 units permitted. The surge in multifamily construction during these years can be attributed to strong demand for rental housing and favorable economic conditions. However, the years 2020 and 2021 presented challenges due to labor and material constraints, which impacted the pace and cost of construction projects. Despite these hurdles, the market demonstrated resilience, maintaining a high level of permitting activity.

In the most recent years, the rental construction market in Jacksonville has shown signs of cooling. In 2023, the number of multifamily units permitted decreased to 7,414, down from the peak in 2022. This decline continued into 2024, with only 1,753 units permitted, indicating a significant reduction in new construction activity. The cooling trend can be attributed to rising vacancy rates, which have tempered the demand for new rental units. As the market adjusts to these changing conditions, the forecast period may see a more measured approach to multifamily construction, balancing supply with the evolving demand dynamics in the metropolitan area. In 2025, the number of units permitted increased slightly to 3,436, suggesting a cautious recovery in construction activity.

Annual rental permitting — Jacksonville HMA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, full-year county files.

Recent Apartment Developments

• Springs at Flagler Center — Located in Jacksonville, this 250-unit development offers studios and one-, two-, and three-bedroom units with rents starting at $1,261, $1,484, $1,768, and $2,047, respectively.
• Vista Brooklyn — This 308-unit apartment community in Jacksonville features studios and one-, two-, and three-bedroom units with rents starting at $1,470, $1,555, $2,190, and $3,395, respectively.
• Terrabella — Situated in Jacksonville's Beacon Hills, this 253-unit project was under construction with completion expected by September 2021.
• The Reserve at Oakleaf — Located in Jacksonville Heights, this 270-unit development was under construction with completion expected by June 2021.
• Presidium Town Center — A 370-unit project in Jacksonville's Deerwood Club, under construction with completion expected by June 2021.
• The Landing at St. Augustine Phase II — This 315-unit development in St. Augustine was under construction, contributing to the area's growth.

Rent Burden and Affordability

The average rent in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is approximately $1,338. To remain under the HUD 30-percent rent-to-income threshold, a household would need a monthly gross income of approximately $4,459, which translates to an annual income of about $53,511. This income requirement suggests that a significant portion of households in the metropolitan area may struggle to afford the average rent without exceeding the recommended rent-to-income ratio. Given the median household income levels in the area, it is likely that a substantial share of households are rent-burdened, spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs.

The average rent in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area decreased by 1.45 percent during the past year. This decline in rent may provide some relief to renters; however, the overall affordability remains a concern, particularly in a tourism-heavy metropolitan area where many jobs are in lower-wage service sectors. The interplay between rent levels, vacancy rates, and local wage growth is critical. If wage growth does not keep pace with housing costs, more households may find themselves rent-burdened. The tourism sector, which is a significant part of the local economy, often offers jobs that may not provide sufficient income to meet the housing costs without financial strain.

Rental subsidies play a crucial role in alleviating the rent burden for low-income households in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area. Programs such as Housing Choice Vouchers, Low-Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC), and USDA Section 515 rural rental housing assistance provide essential support to eligible households. These programs help to bridge the gap between what low-income households can afford and the prevailing market rents, thereby reducing the incidence of rent burden. The availability and accessibility of these subsidies are vital in ensuring that low-income families can secure stable and affordable housing in the metropolitan area.

Rental Submarkets

The rental market in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area exhibits a typical pattern where coastal and core-city submarkets, such as those in Jacksonville, tend to have higher rents compared to interior and exurban submarkets. These coastal and core-city areas are often more desirable due to their proximity to employment centers, amenities, and transportation networks, which supports higher rental rates. Conversely, the interior and exurban submarkets generally experience lower rents and higher vacancy rates. These areas are typically further from the principal city and may offer fewer amenities, contributing to the disparity in rental prices and vacancy levels.

In recent years, new multifamily supply in the Jacksonville metropolitan area has been concentrated primarily in the core-city submarkets. This influx of new units has had a noticeable impact on vacancy rates, particularly in areas where construction has been most active. The addition of new multifamily developments has helped to moderate rent growth in these submarkets by increasing the overall supply of rental units. However, the increased supply has also led to higher vacancy rates in some areas as the market adjusts to the new inventory.

Looking ahead, the outlook for the next 18 to 24 months suggests that the rental market in the Jacksonville metropolitan area will continue to evolve. The ongoing development of multifamily properties is expected to persist, particularly in the core-city submarkets, which may further influence vacancy rates and rental prices. As the metropolitan area continues to attract new residents, driven by factors such as net in-migration and economic growth, demand for rental housing is likely to remain strong. This demand, coupled with the anticipated supply of new units, will play a crucial role in shaping the rental market dynamics during the forecast period.

HUD Fair Market Rents Context

Fair Market Rents (FMRs) represent the 40th percentile of gross rents for standard-quality rental housing units and are utilized in the Housing Choice Voucher program to determine payment standards. For fiscal year 2026, the FMRs in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area are set at $1,355 for a studio, $1,382 for a one-bedroom, $1,658 for a two-bedroom, $1,512 for a three-bedroom, and $2,561 for a four-bedroom unit. These figures are compared to the current average market-rate rent of $1,338. The FMRs for studio, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom units are slightly above the current average rent, indicating that the FMRs are generally aligned with the prevailing market conditions. However, the FMR for a three-bedroom unit is below the current average rent, suggesting a potential shortfall in meeting market rates for larger units.

The implications for affordable-housing providers and voucher recipients in the Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area are significant. The alignment of FMRs with current market rents for smaller units suggests that voucher holders may have adequate access to these types of housing. However, the lower FMR for three-bedroom units compared to the current average rent could pose challenges for families requiring larger accommodations. If market rents continue to rise during the forecast period, the gap between FMRs and actual rents may widen, potentially limiting housing options for voucher recipients. Affordable-housing providers may need to advocate for adjustments in FMRs to ensure they keep pace with market trends, thereby maintaining the effectiveness of the Housing Choice Voucher program in the area.

HUD Fair Market Rents (FY2026) — Jacksonville HMA

HUD Fair Market Rents are used for the Housing Choice Voucher program and as benchmarks for other HUD programs. They reflect the 40th percentile of gross rents for standard-quality rental units.

Forecast

The Jacksonville, FL metropolitan area is projected to experience a demand for approximately 19,948 rental units during the next three years. This demand reflects the ongoing growth and economic vitality of the region, driven by factors such as net in-migration and employment opportunities in key sectors. The current construction pipeline includes 2,588 rental units under construction, which will contribute to meeting this demand. However, the existing inventory of vacant rental units, when combined with the units under construction, suggests that additional construction is not needed at this time. Excessive new construction could lead to further softening of the rental market, potentially impacting rental rates and occupancy levels.

The demand for rental units in Jacksonville is indicative of broader demographic trends, including population growth and household formation. The metropolitan area has seen a steady influx of new residents, attracted by its favorable economic conditions and quality of life. This trend is expected to continue during the forecast period, supporting the projected demand for rental housing. The service-providing sectors, particularly those related to healthcare and education, have been significant contributors to employment growth, further bolstering the demand for rental units.

Despite the positive outlook for rental demand, the balance between supply and demand remains a critical consideration for developers and policymakers. The current level of construction activity, combined with the existing vacant inventory, suggests that the market is well-positioned to accommodate the anticipated demand without the need for additional new construction. This balance is essential to maintaining stable rental rates and ensuring that the market remains attractive to both tenants and investors.

The forecast for rental demand in Jacksonville underscores the importance of strategic planning and market analysis in guiding future development. By aligning construction activity with projected demand, stakeholders can help ensure a healthy and sustainable rental market. This approach will be crucial in maintaining the economic momentum of the metropolitan area and supporting its continued growth and prosperity.

Table 8. Demand for New Rental Units — Jacksonville HMA, 3-Year Forecast

Location Fundamentals

The standard HUD HMP sections above describe the metropolitan area's housing market itself. This section characterizes the underlying drivers of price formation — safety, schools, natural-hazard exposure, infrastructure, policy, and demographic tailwinds — from Zoomprop's proprietary thematic layers. These signals are the most-replicated non-housing inputs in the hedonic-pricing literature.

The Jacksonville metropolitan area exhibits a complex set of location fundamentals impacting the housing market. The median school rating of 5.00 suggests moderate educational quality, which may stabilize home prices by attracting families seeking average schooling options. The area faces a significant hurricane risk, with a top peril score of 85.78, potentially exerting downward pressure on property values due to increased insurance costs and perceived risk. An average walk score of 44.1 indicates limited walkability, which could constrain demand from buyers prioritizing pedestrian-friendly environments. Despite a three-year population decline of 0.5 percent, the region has experienced a substantial income growth of 19.8 percent over the same period, likely supporting housing demand by enhancing purchasing power among residents.

Safety

• Across the Jacksonville metropolitan area, Zoomprop aggregated 85,202 reported incidents over the most recent six months and 14,018 in the last 30 days.

• Most recent FBI UCR data for the state (2025) shows a violent-crime offense rate of 12.9 per 100,000 residents and a property-crime offense rate of 66.4 per 100,000 residents.

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR), state-level, latest full year available.

Schools

• 266 K-12 schools operate within the MSA (31 with GreatSchools ratings).
• Median GreatSchools rating is 5.0 out of 10; 3 schools score 8 or higher and 11 score 3 or lower.
• Average high-school graduation rate is 86.6 percent.
• Average student-to-teacher ratio is 30.6 to 1.
• Average share of students classified as low-income across schools in the MSA is 52.4 percent.

Top-rated schools in the Jacksonville metropolitan area

Natural-hazard exposure (FEMA National Risk Index)

• Of 339 census tracts in the MSA, 177 (52%) rated Relatively Moderate; 117 (35%) rated Relatively Low; 43 (13%) rated Relatively High; 2 (1%) rated Very Low.
• Leading perils by average FEMA NRI risk score across the MSA's tracts: Hurricane (score 85.8); Lightning (score 76.9); Coastal Flood (score 71.1); Riverine Flood (score 70.1); Earthquake (score 55.7).
• The MSA's tracts average a social-vulnerability index of 50.0 and a community-resilience score of 57.1 (both on FEMA's 0-100 scale).

Source: FEMA National Risk Index, mapped to census tracts and rolled up to the MSA. Flood and wildfire capitalization into home prices is well-documented post-2017 disclosure (Bin & Polasky 2004; Keys & Mulder 2024).

Accessibility & infrastructure

• Across 27 neighborhoods measured, the Jacksonville metropolitan area has an average Walk Score of 44.1 and an average Bike Score of 50.7.
• 4 neighborhoods score above 70 on Walk Score ("very walkable"); 16 score below 50 ("car-dependent").
• The MSA is served by 2,473 public-transit stops operated by 4 transit agencies across 12 neighborhoods.

Demographic tailwinds

• Population-weighted median household income across the MSA is $67,736.
• Three-year median-income growth averages 19.8 percent.
• Three-year population growth averages -0.5 percent.
• Average neighborhood-level unemployment rate (ACS-derived) is 3.5 percent.
• Average ACS-reported median gross rent is $1,288.
• Average ACS-reported median owner-occupied home value is $295,806.

Terminology, Definitions, and Notes

A. Definitions

B. Data Lineage

• Employment & unemployment (Economic Conditions): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — CES for payrolls by supersector, LAUS for unemployment at MSA/state/nation, QCEW (BLS/Florida Commerce equivalents) as a fallback where CES is suppressed at this metro.
• Population & households (Population and Households): U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates (PEP V2025 flat files), 2020 decennial census base, American Community Survey 1- and 5-year data.
• Migration flows: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-year Metro-to-Metro Migration Flows.
• Home sales and prices (Home Sales Market): Zoomprop market data (metro home-price, sales-volume, and new-construction-price series); Freddie Mac (30-year fixed-rate mortgage); Zoomprop listing aggregates (months of inventory, days on market).
• Residential permits (Home Sales Market, Rental Market): U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — full-year county files aggregated to MSA.
• Rental market: Zoomprop rent and vacancy aggregates; unit-count series from Zoomprop; developer research via Tavily.
• Forecasts: Zoomprop trend projections over the most recent 5-year window of the underlying series, plus a 2.5 % frictional-vacancy adjustment for the housing-demand calculation.